408
FXUS62 KCAE 121633
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1233 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIGHT BE EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT IS DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
-DRY AIRMASS REMAINS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STRONG RIDGING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY FORECAST ON TAP DUE TO LIMITED
DEEP MOISTURE. WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH
PWAT READINGS REMAIN BELOW AN INCH, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
RESIDING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SHOWS
UP IN THE DEWPOINT FIELDS, WITH DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S EAST, AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S WEST. THE HIGHER MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE NBM DOES SHOW PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT, CAN NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AGAIN VERY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY
FOR ANY FOG FORMATION.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, WITH PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERE. THE UPPER LOW IS PART OF AN OMEGA BLOCK PRESENT
ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING STRETCHING INTO GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA, FOSTERED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ECE/GEFS 500 HPA MEAN HEIGHTS INDICATE HEIGHTS
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AT +2.5 SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH
SHOULD HELP DIVE OUR TROUGH A BIT DEEPER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
US BY SUNDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENTLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COMING DAYS, WITH BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO BE VERY DRY COMPARED TO NORMAL, WITH PWS AROUND
40-60% OF NORMAL. SO WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
MID 80S THIS WEEKEND, THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOSTER
LARGE DIURNAL RANGES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROUGHING
CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
- RAIN CHANCES MAY RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW THE
TROUGH EVOLVES
OMEGA BLOCK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORKING ITSELF TO ITS
NATURAL END POINT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEKEND'S
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, FORCING
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN. CANADIAN/ECMWF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS OUR DEEP TROUGH CUTTING OFF
TO THE SOUTH OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING, FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH, TAKING IT OUT TO SEA
GRADUALLY, BUT THE 12Z RUN IS FALLING IN LINE WITH OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS (FWIW THE EXPERIMENTAL, HI-RES MPAS RUN BY UCAR ALSO
CUTS OFF THE TROUGH). BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION AND MODEL
TRENDS, THINKING IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT THE LOW WILL
CUT OFF AND THEN MEANDER WESTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY OF THE AREA. THIS HAS SOME
POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER. IF THE LOW CUTS OFF
AND WORKS AS FAR WEST AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS, WE COULD SEE A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF RAIN NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BECOME LIKELY. HOWEVER, THINKING RIGHT NOW THIS IS AN
OUTLIER AND THAT WE WILL STAY MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS THE CUT OFF LOW PASSES
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANYTHING BEYOND THIS
POINT IS UNCERTAIN, AS THE PROGRESSION AND EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF
THE TROUGH (OR LACK THEREOF!) WILL DICTATE THE FORECAST BEYOND
MON/TUES/WED SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN THAT PERIOD AND
BEYOND.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL KEEP KOGB
BOUNCING BETWEEN SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CLOUD BASES THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RISING TO VFR. BETTER MIXING AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ACROSS CAE/CUB AND THE CSRA SITES OF AGS/DNL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP CLOUD BASES WITHIN VFR. ALTHOUGH ALL SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR INTO TONIGHT, THERE REMAINS AT LEAST
SOME CHANCE AT OGB FOR REFORMATION OF MVFR STRATUS TOWARDS SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE
A SCATTERED CLOUD GROUP BELOW 3KFT TOWARDS SUNRISE AT OGB TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL. WINDS REMAINING MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS BOTH DAYS, AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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