135
FXUS62 KCAE 130616
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
216 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIGHT BE EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT IS DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS, AND OTHERWISE CALM WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING DOWN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
AT LOW LEVELS AND PWAT'S OVERALL REMAIN AROUND 1.0" ACROSS THE AREA
THANKS TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BELOW 700MB AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE TODAY WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED
WINDS, WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 18-22 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO IMPACTFUL CHANGES TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY.
- POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN MONDAY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION.
UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN AMPLIFIES ON SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH FORCES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
COAST CUTTING OFF AND RETROGRADING BACK INLAND OVER THE
CAROLINAS BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH CUTTING OFF THIS LOW AND MOVING IT INLAND WHICH
WOULD ALSO RESULT IN ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW, A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE, AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT WE WILL REMAIN DRY GIVEN OTHER
ENSEMBLES KEEPING THE TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE OR BRINGING IT INLAND
NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAVORING
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGIONS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO AN INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BUT THE DRY AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FAVOR COOLER THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE REGION.
- POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOCUS AROUND THE LINGERING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION MID WEEK
AND THEN CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES WITH
THE EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN. IF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTION VERIFIES THEN THE CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY FAVORING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
PEE DEE REGION AS PWATS RISE BACK NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL,
BUT OVERALL GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN BY
LATE WEEK LOOKS TO FAVOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT SHOULD MITIGATE ANY STRATUS OR FOG CONCERN
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS SC AND GA, WITH ONLY SOME FEW-SCT CU EXPECTED IN TERMS
OF CLOUD COVER. WINDS ARE THE MAIN FEATURE, WITH NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUING, SUSTAINED 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER 00Z BUT ENOUGH OF A
LOW LEVEL JET WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT TO AGAIN MITIGATE STRATUS-FOG
CONCERNS SUNDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
UNLIKELY. THE CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS INCREASES MID NEXT WEEK
AS MOISTURE DEEPENS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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