401
FXUS62 KCAE 131622
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1222 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIGHT BE EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT IS DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
-DRY AIRMASS REMAINS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
STRONG RIDGING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY FORECAST ON TAP DUE TO LIMITED
DEEP MOISTURE. WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH
PWAT READINGS REMAIN BELOW AN INCH, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
RESIDING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SHOWS
UP IN THE DEWPOINT FIELDS, WITH DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S EAST, AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S WEST. THE HIGHER MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE NBM DOES SHOW PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT, CAN NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AGAIN VERY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY
FOR ANY FOG FORMATION.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY.
- POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN MONDAY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DRIVING OUR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE AMPLIFYING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OMEGA BLOCK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY DOWNSTREAM OF AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS ANOMALOUS
RIDGING SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES, IT SHOULD FORCE OUR UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO DIG AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF ALONG THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE BY MONDAY. A ROBUST SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE JUST OFF SHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A
RESULT, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
DIFFERENT AS THE CUT OFF LOW MEANDERS NEAR THE AREA. THE
LOCATION OF THIS IS QUITE IMPORTANT AS AREAS ON ITS EASTERN SIDE
WILL POTENTIALLY GET RAIN CHANCES, BEGINNING ON MONDAY. THERE IS
AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD REGARDING THIS, WITH THE GFS BEING
THE DRIEST GUIDANCE AND THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE THE WETTEST
GUIDANCE. OVERALL, THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION. WITH GREAT UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW, 20-30% POPS FEEL
APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 80S
BOTH DAYS, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE REGION, WITH
POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES ON LIGHT TUESDAY.
- SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BY THUR/FRI, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS EXPECTED.
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER NEAR THE
REGION, WITH THE LOCATION OF IT IMPORTANT TO TUESDAY'S FORECAST.
IF IT ENDS UP BEING TO OUR WEST, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER
THAN ARE CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY INCREASE A
BIT UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW. FROM HERE, ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LOW
PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING APPROACHING BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING TROUGH, EXPECT HIGHS TO GET BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK, WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF HIGHS >90F
INCREASING INTO THE 60%+ RANGE. DESPITE THE APPROACHING TROUGH,
PWS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL, FOSTERING
RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGES CONTINUING.
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WILL KEEP KOGB
BOUNCING BETWEEN SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CLOUD BASES THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RISING TO VFR. BETTER MIXING AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ACROSS CAE/CUB AND THE CSRA SITES OF AGS/DNL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP CLOUD BASES WITHIN VFR. ALTHOUGH ALL SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR INTO TONIGHT, THERE REMAINS AT LEAST
SOME CHANCE AT OGB FOR REFORMATION OF MVFR STRATUS TOWARDS SUNRISE
ON THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE
A SCATTERED CLOUD GROUP BELOW 3KFT TOWARDS SUNRISE AT OGB TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL. WINDS REMAINING MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS BOTH DAYS, AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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