794
FXUS62 KCAE 132352
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
752 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIGHT BE EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT IS DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
-COOL AND QUIET OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS
DROP TO AROUND 60 OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR LOWS.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY.
- POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN MONDAY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND PEE
DEE REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DRIVING OUR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE AMPLIFYING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OMEGA BLOCK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY DOWNSTREAM OF AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS ANOMALOUS
RIDGING SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES, IT SHOULD FORCE OUR UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO DIG AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF ALONG THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE BY MONDAY. A ROBUST SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE JUST OFF SHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A
RESULT, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
DIFFERENT AS THE CUT OFF LOW MEANDERS NEAR THE AREA. THE
LOCATION OF THIS IS QUITE IMPORTANT AS AREAS ON ITS EASTERN SIDE
WILL POTENTIALLY GET RAIN CHANCES, BEGINNING ON MONDAY. THERE IS
AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD REGARDING THIS, WITH THE GFS BEING
THE DRIEST GUIDANCE AND THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE THE WETTEST
GUIDANCE. OVERALL, THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION. WITH GREAT UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW, 20-30% POPS FEEL
APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 80S
BOTH DAYS, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE REGION, WITH
POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES ON LIGHT TUESDAY.
- SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BY THUR/FRI, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS EXPECTED.
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER NEAR THE
REGION, WITH THE LOCATION OF IT IMPORTANT TO TUESDAY'S FORECAST.
IF IT ENDS UP BEING TO OUR WEST, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER
THAN ARE CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY INCREASE A
BIT UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW. FROM HERE, ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LOW
PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING APPROACHING BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING TROUGH, EXPECT HIGHS TO GET BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK, WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF HIGHS >90F
INCREASING INTO THE 60%+ RANGE. DESPITE THE APPROACHING TROUGH,
PWS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL, FOSTERING
RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGES CONTINUING.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS. WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY PASS OVER
THE TERMINALS, LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED. WINDS GENERALLY OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST AND WHILE THEY MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT TOMORROW
LATE MORNING, WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID TEENS POSSIBLE, ONE
LINE TAFS SEEM SUFFICIENT FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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