350
FXUS62 KCAE 140559
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
159 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIGHT BE EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT IS DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND OTHERWISE CALM WEATHER FOR SUNDAY.
A CUTOFF LOW JUST OFFSHORE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING
DOWN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT AT LOW
LEVELS AND PWAT'S OVERALL REMAIN AROUND 1.0" ACROSS THE AREA
THANKS TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BELOW 700MB AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. BESIDES SOME MID- UPPER LEVEL STRATO-CU, THE ONLY FEATURE
OF NOTE TODAY WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED BREEZY WINDS, WITH
SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 16-20 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO IMPACTFUL CHANGES TO THE SURFACE PATTERN
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LOW CHANCES OF RAIN FAVORING THE PEE DEE REGION AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE COAST BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW STRONG THIS CUTOFF LOW BECOMES AND
WHERE AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND POSSIBLY MOVES
INLAND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE
UPPER CLOSED LOW FURTHER INLAND AND BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW
ONSHORE RESULTING IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH THE UPPER CLOSED LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BRINGING IT INLAND ACROSS EASTERN NC AND
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE, THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE (20-30%) CHANCES OF RAIN
IN THE FORECAST SEEM REASONABLE. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BUT MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO THE
MID 80S IN THE CSRA. AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE
GUSTY WINDS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION
- DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP
AND LIFT NORTHWARD MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. 500MB HEIGHT RISES SHOULD RESULT
IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BACK IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED WITH PWATS BELOW
NORMAL WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT AND SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD
MITIGATE ANY STRATUS OR FOG CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SC AND GA,
WITH SOME MID-LEVEL STRATO-CU. MUCH LIKE SATURDAY, WINDS ARE
THE MAIN FEATURE, WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUING,
SUSTAINED 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 16-20 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON; WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST, SO OGB WILL
LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST GUSTS. WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER 00Z BUT
ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL JET WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT TO AGAIN
MITIGATE STRATUS-FOG CONCERNS SUNDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page