721
FXUS62 KCAE 141631
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1231 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIGHT BE EARLY
THIS WEEK BUT IS DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED DRY.
- BREEZY AND GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ALONG AND EAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE. ONE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW WELL EAST OF THE COAST, WHILE THE OTHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOWS SPINNING ALONG THE GA/FL COASTAL BORDER. A
FEW UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE LOWS, BUT REALLY NO IMPACTS OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS
EXPECTED. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONTROLLER OF OUR WEATHER. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT
REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED THROUGH TONIGHT, SO A
DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE BETWEEN 60-64 FOR
MOST AREAS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LOW CHANCES OF RAIN FAVORING THE PEE DEE REGION AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS
WELL ADVERTISED CUTOFF, MID-LEVEL LOW IS MATERIALIZING CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GA AND NORTHEASTERN FL. THIS IS OCCURRING AS
THE OMEGA BLOCK ENTERS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PERIOD, DRIVEN BY A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PROPAGATING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BY MONDAY MORNING, THIS CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
MEANDERING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SC COASTAL PLAIN, HELPING TO
FORCE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFF
SHORE. WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY AS THIS FEATURE PASSES TO OUR EAST. LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY, THOUGH, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SOME
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. TUESDAY IS THE
MOST INTERESTING DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY UP THE COASTLINE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
TAKE AN AIM AT THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE THROUGH THE DAY, AT
LEAST INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIALLY HELPING DEVELOP
SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOT LIKELY, BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO HAVE POPS OF 20-30% IN THE PEE DEE REGION FOR NOW, WHICH IS
BASICALLY IN LINE WITH THE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT ARE
ACTUALLY SHOWING RAIN UP THERE. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE THE TEMP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
CSRA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION, WITH DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL HELP
THE CLOSED LOW OPEN AND BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A RESULT, WITH LOW RAIN
CHANCES AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL
STILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS THE DRY AIRMASS FAVORS
LARGE DIURNAL RANGES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COMBINATION OF CUTOFF LOW OFF THE GA/FL COASTAL BORDER AND AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
WILL BRING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE NORTH, ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS, WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO MONDAY. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL BRING A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT OGB, WITH LOWER
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AT ALL OTHER TAF LOCATION. GUSTS DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET. WINDS REMAINING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL JET WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT TO
AGAIN MITIGATE STRATUS-FOG CONCERNS MONDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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