994
FXUS62 KCAE 150002
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
802 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIGHT BE EARLY
THIS WEEK BUT IS DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COUPLE AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. ONE AREA IS A SURFACE LOW OFF THE SHORE
OF NORTH CAROLINA WHILE THE OTHER IS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF GEORGIA. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS, WHICH IS
KEEPING OUR FORECAST AREA DRY. SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE AFOREMENTIONED OFFSHORE LOWS ARE ABOUT THE WEATHER PHENOMENA
WE'RE EXPECTING OVERNIGHT. WITH THESE CLOUDS, LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT, BUT STILL COOL IN THE
LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LOW CHANCES OF RAIN FAVORING THE PEE DEE REGION AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS
WELL ADVERTISED CUTOFF, MID-LEVEL LOW IS MATERIALIZING CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GA AND NORTHEASTERN FL. THIS IS OCCURRING AS
THE OMEGA BLOCK ENTERS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PERIOD, DRIVEN BY A
SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PROPAGATING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BY MONDAY MORNING, THIS CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
MEANDERING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SC COASTAL PLAIN, HELPING TO
FORCE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFF
SHORE. WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY AS THIS FEATURE PASSES TO OUR EAST. LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY, THOUGH, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SOME
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. TUESDAY IS THE
MOST INTERESTING DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY UP THE COASTLINE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
TAKE AN AIM AT THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE THROUGH THE DAY, AT
LEAST INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIALLY HELPING DEVELOP
SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOT LIKELY, BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO HAVE POPS OF 20-30% IN THE PEE DEE REGION FOR NOW, WHICH IS
BASICALLY IN LINE WITH THE NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT ARE
ACTUALLY SHOWING RAIN UP THERE. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE THE TEMP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
CSRA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION, WITH DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL HELP
THE CLOSED LOW OPEN AND BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A RESULT, WITH LOW RAIN
CHANCES AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL
STILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS THE DRY AIRMASS FAVORS
LARGE DIURNAL RANGES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE VISIBLE OFF THE COAST ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE TERMINALS. NNE WINDS
HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAD TO DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS A
RESULT, RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT, SIMILAR TO THE
LAST COUPLE NIGHTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONGEST OVER OGB
SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME GUSTS OUT OF THE NE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR TOMORROW WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL WIND INCREASES
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS. WINDS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN IN THE HIGH LEVELS, GENERALLY EXPECTED ABOVE 10KFT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER
THE REGION THIS WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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