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FXUS62 KCAE 151045
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
645 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY, BUT SOME
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. DRY AND WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
ALONG THE CAROLINAS COAST WITH A SURFACE LOW ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF WILMINGTON. RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
SATELLITE DERIVED PWATS LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST GA ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. THIS WILL PULL THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE TOWARD THE
NC COAST TODAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN NC
TONIGHT. THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY SO EXPECT A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST, BUT
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES AND
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE MUTED A BIT BY HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY
BUT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN NC TONIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL SUPPORT SOME WEAK COOL ADVECTION AND WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
TO PARTS OF THE AREA.
A PERSISTENT AND VERY SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE WILL MEANDER
NORTHWARD INTO NC BY TUESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND ELEVATED PWAT'S WILL PULL INTO THE PEE DEE AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AS A RESULT, BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT TUESDAY; ANY QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SPORADIC DUE
MEDIOCRE PWAT'S AROUND 1.25" AND LACK OF TRUE FORCING BASED ON
OUR POSITIONING RELATIVE TO THE LOW. ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WRAP LOWER PWAT'S
AROUND THE UPPER LOW FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO RAIN
CHANCES ARE VERY LOW FROM COLUMBIA SOUTH AND WEST. ECE, GEFS,
AND HI-RES ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS SYSTEM, ACCOUNTING FOR EXPECTED LOW PREDICTABILITY
GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY TO SWING
NOTABLE DRY ADVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST WITH NO RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION
OR FRONT AS THIS UPPER LOW EXITS, SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM
AND WINDS WILL ONLY SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A RETURN TO RIDGING ALOFT AND WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA,
WITH STRONG TROUGHING REMAINING IN PLACE IN THE NE CONUS AND BROAD
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL POSITION OUR AREA UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME NORTHERLY COMPONENT FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY, SURFACE FLOW WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WITH LITTLE
SYNOPTIC FLOW, STEADY AIRMASS MODERATION WILL PUSH TEMPS 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. AS SEEN IN THE GEFS AND ECE SOLUTIONS, OVER
THE WEEKEND, A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NE CONUS AND LIKELY PUSH THROUGH A BACKDOOR FRONT BRINGING
COOLER TEMPS AND SOME LOW END RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SOME GUSTY WINDS AT OGB DUE TO AN
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE SUPPORTING A DRY FORECAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NO
FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS DUE TO DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE ALTHOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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