409
FXUS62 KCAE 151624
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1224 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA. ALOFT,
A CLOSED LOW MAY BRING SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. DRY AND WARMING TEMPS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA (FA). THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES, WITH LATEST VALUES AROUND 1.2
INCHES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO SOME MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST, ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW WELL EAST OF THE
NC COASTLINE. THESE LOWS WILL VERY SLOWLY BE TRACKING NORTHWARD
INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AIRMASS WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO
LIMIT ANY RAINFALL ACTIVITY THROUGH TONIGHT, EVEN OVER THE
NORTHERN FA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. AFTER AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE MEANDERING TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THAN WERE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER WITH THE UPPER LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COUNTER PART ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE LOW TRACKING INTO THE OUTER BANKS,
WITH THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION CONFINED TO NORTH CAROLINA AND
VIRGINIA NOW. AS A RESULT, FORECAST HIGH TEMPS HAVE COME UP
WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE FALLEN. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. THESE WILL LIKELY BE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN, THOUGH, WITH LOW POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS
POINT. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S REGIONALLY.
THEY MAY STICK IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE PEE DEE AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS BUT THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS
REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE FA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY END UP
WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN - IN THE LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A RETURN TO RIDGING ALOFT AND WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART NORTHEASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THIS SLOWLY
MORPHING INTO WEAK UPPER RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH
RESPECT TO AFTERNOON HIGHS. 90S LOOK LIKELY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH GEFS/ECE/ECE AIFS GUIDANCE POINTING TO A NEAR
100% CHANCE OF TEMPS >=5F ABOVE NORMAL BOTH AFTERNOONS. WHY THIS
IS THE CASE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS 850 HPA TEMPS REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL IN THIS PERIOD, HEIGHTS ARE NOT VERY HIGH, AND THERE
ISN'T STRONG DOWNSLOPING OR ANYTHING. THERE IS STILL A PRETTY
HIGH SUN ANGLE AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY, BOTH OF WHICH
FAVOR WARMER TEMPS. BUT HOW WARM IS MY QUESTION. CONSENSUS IS
OVERWHELMINGLY IN FAVOR OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THIS
PERIOD, SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST THAT. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE FORECAST HIGH COME DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THOUGH, ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY.
BEYOND THAT, A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE PERIOD
BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH IN THE TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF THAT AT
THIS POINT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MUCH OF THE SAME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL,
WHILE ALOFT A CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS, THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL AT ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED
LOW WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION. ANY AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL
REMAIN SCATTERED AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NO FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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