756
FXUS62 KCAE 152340
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
740 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. ALOFT, A CLOSED LOW MAY BRING SOME SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. DRY
AND WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR
THE NC/SC BORDER THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS OFF
THE NC COAST. THESE FEATURES HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WHERE GOES DERIVED PWAT VALUES PEAK
NEAR 1.25", MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN FA. MRMS REFLECTIVITY SHOWS
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NC, SLOWLY WORKING INTO PARTS OF THE UPSTATE OF SC
BUT CAMS REMAIN INSISTENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF THE FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS SOLUTION CONTINUES
TO SEEM REASONABLE WITH THE GENEROUS AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BELOW 850MB AND THUS MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.
SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE MEANDERING TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THAN WERE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER WITH THE UPPER LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COUNTER PART ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE LOW TRACKING INTO THE OUTER BANKS,
WITH THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION CONFINED TO NORTH CAROLINA AND
VIRGINIA NOW. AS A RESULT, FORECAST HIGH TEMPS HAVE COME UP
WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE FALLEN. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. THESE WILL LIKELY BE
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN, THOUGH, WITH LOW POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS
POINT. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S REGIONALLY.
THEY MAY STICK IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE PEE DEE AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS BUT THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS
REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE FA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY END UP
WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN - IN THE LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A RETURN TO RIDGING ALOFT AND WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART NORTHEASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THIS SLOWLY
MORPHING INTO WEAK UPPER RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS A
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH
RESPECT TO AFTERNOON HIGHS. 90S LOOK LIKELY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH GEFS/ECE/ECE AIFS GUIDANCE POINTING TO A NEAR
100% CHANCE OF TEMPS >=5F ABOVE NORMAL BOTH AFTERNOONS. WHY THIS
IS THE CASE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS 850 HPA TEMPS REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL IN THIS PERIOD, HEIGHTS ARE NOT VERY HIGH, AND THERE
ISN'T STRONG DOWNSLOPING OR ANYTHING. THERE IS STILL A PRETTY
HIGH SUN ANGLE AND THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY, BOTH OF WHICH
FAVOR WARMER TEMPS. BUT HOW WARM IS MY QUESTION. CONSENSUS IS
OVERWHELMINGLY IN FAVOR OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THIS
PERIOD, SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST THAT. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE FORECAST HIGH COME DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THOUGH, ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY.
BEYOND THAT, A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE PERIOD
BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH IN THE TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF THAT AT
THIS POINT.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE A SURFACE
LOW OFF THE OUTER BANKS AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER.
WITH THE LOCATION OF THESE TWO LOWS, SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
INCREASE IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT JUST SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES BUT HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW. WHILE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS, OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page