048
FXUS62 KCAE 160555
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
155 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. ALOFT, A CLOSED LOW MAY BRING SOME SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. DRY
AND WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UPPER LOW NEAR THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY
- CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF CHARLOTTE
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINS JUST OFF THE COAST OF
THE OUTER BANKS. SATELLITE DERIVED PWATS SHOW A MINIMUM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH VALUES AROUND AN INCH WITH MUCH HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS EASTERN NC CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND BETTER
ONSHORE FLOW. THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A ROBUST MID LEVEL INVERSION WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ALONG WITH GENERALLY LOW ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE, DESPITE POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY POSSIBLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION.
THE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY PROVIDING A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD
SUPPORT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY TO SWING
NOTABLE DRY ADVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST WITH NO RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED; PWAT'S SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW 1.0"
THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A
SURFACE REFLECTION OR FRONT AS THIS UPPER LOW EXITS, SO TEMPS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY WARM AND WINDS WILL ONLY SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY. STEADY HEIGHT RISES ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY
ALONG WITH BROAD WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. WITH SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING
FLOW AND STILL HIGH SUN ANGLE, TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80'S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A RETURN TO RIDGING ALOFT AND WARMING TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA,
WITH STRONG TROUGHING REMAINING IN PLACE IN THE NE CONUS AND BROAD
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL POSITION OUR AREA UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE, SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES, AND SOME NORTHERLY COMPONENT
FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
WEAK BUT SHIFT TO GAIN A WEAK SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND WITH LITTLE
SYNOPTIC FLOW, STEADY AIRMASS MODERATION WILL PUSH TEMPS 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. AS SEEN IN THE GEFS AND ECE SOLUTIONS, OVER
THE WEEKEND, A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NE CONUS AND LIKELY PUSH THROUGH A BACKDOOR FRONT BRINGING
COOLER TEMPS AND SOME LOW END RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN BECOME
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
AWAY FROM THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 6 TO 9 KNOTS
FROM THE NORTH BY 15Z THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS MORE NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD PREVENT
FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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