989
FXUS62 KCAE 161714
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
114 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT WILL INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. DRY AND WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL INDUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA (PWAT VALUES AROUND 1 INCH) IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FA WHERE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY ALLOW THE RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER WE CAN'T RULE
OUT A SPRINKLE FOR AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF I-20. THE MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS, ALONG WITH
WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW, WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION
WITH RISING 500MB HEIGHTS. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
OUR EXTENDED STRETCH OF BENIGN, QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN ITS HIKE
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY, BUILDING RIDGING INTO THE OH
VALLEY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US, WEAK
FLOW AND WEAK TROUGHING IS ACTUALLY FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD.
WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORING A DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE, SUNSHINE AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING TREND
THAN I WOULD EXPECT BASED ON THE SETUP FAVORING NEAR NORMAL
HEIGHTS, 850 HPA TEMPS, NO APPROACHING FRONT, AND NO SURFACE
DOWNSLOPING. SO MAINTAINING UPPER 80S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY AND
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW
60S OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY/SATURDAY, WITH A RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS BY SUN/MON.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK, AT
BEST, WITH WEAK TROUGHING BEING REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING AS WE
GET INTO THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH
TEMPS ON FRI/SAT, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. STILL THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT HIGH BASED ON THE PATTERN
BUT GUIDANCE IS OVERWHELMINGLY IN FAVOR OF HIGHS 5F-8F ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY SUNDAY, A TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST BY ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS TO SET UP TO OUR
WEST, FORCING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
US COAST. THIS SHOULD FOSTER A RETURN TO LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW, WHICH WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW HANGING OVER
THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS NO RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SPRINKLE AT THE TAF SITES. LIGHT N TO NW WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD HINDER FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. WHEN WINDS PICK UP AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY, SPEEDS
WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS GENERALLY OUT OF THE W.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page