930
FXUS62 KCAE 162337
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
737 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT IS INDUCING A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DRY AND WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE REGION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING REVEALS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, NOW POSITIONED IN NORTHERN NC WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. THE CWA HAS
REMAINED ON THE DRY SIDE BUT A COUPLE DIMINISHING SHOWERS FROM
THE UPSTATE ARE SNEAKING INTO THE NORTHERN LINCOLN AND MCCORMICK
COUNTIES AS A POCKET OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW. GOES DERIVED PWAT'S IN THIS POCKET ARE BETWEEN
1.35-1.45" AND THUS WHILE THIS CONTINUES TO PIVOT THROUGH THE
AREA MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF I-20, A COUPLE BRIEF SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS SHOULD
YIELD MODEST TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
OUR EXTENDED STRETCH OF BENIGN, QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN ITS HIKE
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY, BUILDING RIDGING INTO THE OH
VALLEY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US, WEAK
FLOW AND WEAK TROUGHING IS ACTUALLY FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD.
WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORING A DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE, SUNSHINE AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING TREND
THAN I WOULD EXPECT BASED ON THE SETUP FAVORING NEAR NORMAL
HEIGHTS, 850 HPA TEMPS, NO APPROACHING FRONT, AND NO SURFACE
DOWNSLOPING. SO MAINTAINING UPPER 80S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY AND
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW
60S OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY/SATURDAY, WITH A RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS BY SUN/MON.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK, AT
BEST, WITH WEAK TROUGHING BEING REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING AS WE
GET INTO THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH
TEMPS ON FRI/SAT, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. STILL THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT HIGH BASED ON THE PATTERN
BUT GUIDANCE IS OVERWHELMINGLY IN FAVOR OF HIGHS 5F-8F ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY SUNDAY, A TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST BY ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS TO SET UP TO OUR
WEST, FORCING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
US COAST. THIS SHOULD FOSTER A RETURN TO LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW, WHICH WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE TERMINALS
WITH AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED A BIT AND FOG PRONE AGS OR OGB MAY BRIEFLY SEE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND ANY FOG WILL
LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK DEVELOPING AROUND 6KFT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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