203
FXUS62 KCAE 171639
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1239 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE
AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH COULD
INDUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES AND LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT VERY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS IF
MEASURABLE AT ALL. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR REASONABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. PERSISTENT, WEAK TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
DESPITE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE AREA. ONE INTERESTING TREND IS
TOWARDS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY EVENING. HRRR IS NOW
FORECASTING THIS AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS. THE
SETUP IS NOT GREAT ESPECIALLY GIVEN MODEST PWS. BUT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE HEIGHT RISES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THESE SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NBM HAS TRENDED AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS INTO A MORE REASONABLE 88F-91F
FOR HIGHS. A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER LARGE
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- STEADY COOL DOWN EXPECTED AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WARM IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS IN PLACE IS FORECAST
TO YIELD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF UNCERTAIN AMPLITUDE LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF
THE CONUS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO FOSTER A COASTAL LOW (AGAIN)
DEVELOPING, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS FAVORS A PERIOD OF TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IF CLOUDS ARE THICK OR ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THEY'RE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THEIR OWN
ENSEMBLES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
(FAIRLY HIGH IQR DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE ECE/GEFS GUIDANCE FOR
THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH), IT IS HARD TO COMMENT ON ANYTHING MORE
THAN THE SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT WE SEE RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, HIGHS AND LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD BUT
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS
POSSIBLE AT AGS/DNL TODAY BUT A DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO VERY
LIGHT RAIN RATES WHICH WILL NOT BE IMPACTFUL. A FEW AFTERNOON
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT WEST
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BECOMING CALM
TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG IS POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS AND
OGB HOWEVER THE HRRR AND LAMP DO NOT SUGGEST RESTRICTIONS SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AND NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS REMAINS POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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