120
FXUS62 KCAE 172358
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
758 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COUPLE SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A COUPLE SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT HAS LED TO
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS GA. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED WEST OF THE CSRA AND GENERALLY HAS BEGUN
WANING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND PWAT'S THAT NOW ARE UNDER
1.25" ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. CONTINUING INTO THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, A SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY IN
THE CSRA AS THIS SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. OUTSIDE OF THIS,
MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ALLOW FOR MODEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER
60S.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. PERSISTENT, WEAK TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
DESPITE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE AREA. ONE INTERESTING TREND IS
TOWARDS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY EVENING. HRRR IS NOW
FORECASTING THIS AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS. THE
SETUP IS NOT GREAT ESPECIALLY GIVEN MODEST PWS. BUT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE HEIGHT RISES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THESE SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NBM HAS TRENDED AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS INTO A MORE REASONABLE 88F-91F
FOR HIGHS. A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER LARGE
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- STEADY COOL DOWN EXPECTED AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WARM IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS IN PLACE IS FORECAST
TO YIELD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF UNCERTAIN AMPLITUDE LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF
THE CONUS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO FOSTER A COASTAL LOW (AGAIN)
DEVELOPING, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS FAVORS A PERIOD OF TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IF CLOUDS ARE THICK OR ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THEY'RE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THEIR OWN
ENSEMBLES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
(FAIRLY HIGH IQR DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE ECE/GEFS GUIDANCE FOR
THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH), IT IS HARD TO COMMENT ON ANYTHING MORE
THAN THE SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT WE SEE RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, HIGHS AND LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED....
FAIRY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LINGERING SHOWERS IN GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30 AT AGS/DNL AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AND NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS REMAINS POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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