974
FXUS62 KCAE 030008
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
808 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO END THIS WEEK AND FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WITH SATURDAY BEING A BIT WARMER. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL, DRY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST RIDGING DOWN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, REINFORCING THE
FALL-LIKE AIRMASS. AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FORECAST
LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP AND PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
HOWEVER. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND
AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR LOWS.
SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO END THE WEEK AND START THE
WEEKEND.
- BREEZY WINDS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKLY RIDGING DOWN INTO THE FA. UPPER RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL, LIKELY HELPING
WITH KEEPING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION
MAINLY FRIDAY BEFORE LOW LEVEL FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY. THE 13Z NBM HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND
OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (WHICH PLACES TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S). WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES
MAY TREND CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE SATURDAY IS IN
THE UPPER 70S AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THIS
TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO END THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
RAIN CHANCES MAKE A RETURN SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST WEAKENS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS OUT THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. A WEAK LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER
THE FL PENINSULA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AID
IN BRINGING HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO THE CWA.
PWAT'S ARE SHOWN REACHING BETWEEN 150-165% OF NORMAL IN THE GEFS
AND EC ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS BUT THEIR DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPARTS
SHOW PWAT'S COULD GET AS HIGH AS 175-185% OF NORMAL. EITHER WAY,
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE AND
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO START TO BECOME MORE SEASONAL SUNDAY.
THE EARLY WEEK CONTINUES TO SEE MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES
ADVECTING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OFF SHORE RIDGE,
BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
THE PATTERN SHOULD ALTER SOME TOWARD THE MIDWEEK AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, DRIVING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY BEING USHERED IN FROM THE
COAST, WHICH HAS BROUGHT A CLOUD DECK AROUND THE 5 KFT LEVEL.
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE BEFORE CLEARING
OUT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING LOWER FOR CEILINGS TONIGHT DUE TO
ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-8 KTS. WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS AFTER ABOUT 15Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION SATURDAY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DAILY
RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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