539
FXUS62 KCAE 031034
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
634 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AND SATURDAY. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL PROMOTE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WITH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEING A BIT WARMER. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NONE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AND
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH
TODAY. IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE
NEAR NORMAL, IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION
LEADING TO MORE MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. FOG IS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS AND SOME NEAR SURFACE MIXING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- PARTLY CLOUDY BUT CONTINUED DRY ON SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THE
SHORT TERM. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AT
THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MOVES EASTWARD TO A POSITION
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PWATS
TO RISE AS THE FLOW SHIFTS EASTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY. IT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS FOR
THE REGION WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND LOW RAIN CHANCES.
SUNDAY IS UNLIKELY TO BE A WASHOUT FOR ANYONE BUT THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUDS AROUND A PERHAPS A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL VALUES BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NOT AS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH EAST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN ACROSS THE CSRA, THOUGH THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AN AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR THE THE BAHAMAS AND WHERE IT TRACKS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE WEEKEND.
BY WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST RESULTING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT, THERE MAY BE A THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A REINFORCING COOL AND DRY AIR MASS
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST PERIOD.
EARLY THIS MORNING, A 20 TO 30 KT LLJ WILL KEEP THE NEAR SURFACE
LAYER WELL MIXED PREVENTING FOG FORMATION.
THE JET WILL MIX DOWN AROUND 15Z TODAY. WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF
THE NE AROUND 10 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS DO NOT APPEAR THAT THEY WILL BE AS STRONG TONIGHT AS THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS BUT THE DRY AIR MASS SHOULD STILL HINDER FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THAT SAID, AGS COULD STILL GET SHALLOW FOG OFF OF
THE RIVER AS IT TENDS TO DO, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION
SATURDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAILY RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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