197
FXUS62 KCAE 031711
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
111 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THOUGH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES CARRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NONE
QUIET AND, DARE I SAY, BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A CRISP START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S, WE HAVE SEE THE SUNSHINE AND DRY AIRMASS
YIELD TEMPS IN THE 70S. DID NUDGE DEWPOINTS DOWN THIS AFTERNOON
FROM WHAT THE NBM HAD AS OUR LOW-LEVEL MIXING HAS BEEN QUITE
ROBUST THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S, WELL UNDER THE NBM FORECAST. WITH PWS
NEAR 0.5" PER GOES PW IMAGERY, THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE
EXPECTATION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
STILL RIDGING SOUTHEASTWARD, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
STILL CAUSING WINDS TO GUST NEAR 20 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE GUSTINESS LIKELY SLOWING DOWN AS WE GET
LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD SETTLE BETWEEN 75F AND
80F DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU ARE. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT REALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CARRY US THROUGH. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AROUND 4-8 MPH
OVERNIGHT, MAKING IT TOUGH TO SEE LOWS DIP QUITE AS FAR INTO THE
50S AS THEY HAVE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. SO LOOK FOR LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S MOST PLACES, WITH A FEW PLACES WARMER/COOLER.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO
GRADUALLY WARM.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA
SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. UPPER RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD BRING A PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT NEAR THE MID TO UPPER 70S, THOUGH A COUPLE
PLACES MAY PUSH TOWARD 80 AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING MOISTURE
THAT SLOWLY INCREASES, BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. SUNDAY SEES
MUCH OF THE SAME EXCEPT MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER A
PWAT'S APPROACH 1-1.2". 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW MORE LIMITED MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS AND THUS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP'S TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A
COUPLE SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE HERE BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED BY ANY MEANS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD WARM A BIT
(LOW 80S) AS FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDWEEK WITH SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A BIT OF A DRIER
TREND IN THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING OFF SHORE WITH
UPPER RIDING GROWING WEAKER THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALLOWING
INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO OCCUR BUT
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING TAPPED INTO HAS TRENDED LOWER AND
THUS POP'S MAX OUT AT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE YESTERDAY SHOWED PWAT'S REACHING
AS HIGH AS 160-170% OF NORMAL BUT THE 12Z GEFS AND 06Z EC
ENSEMBLE NOW PEAK BETWEEN 110-140% OF NORMAL. THUS ANY RAIN
CHANCES NEXT WEEK MAY END UP BEING A BIT MORE ISOLATED THAT
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL TREND
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION, BUT WITH THE CURRENT
DOWNWARD TREND IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, POP'S
HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES THEN COOL DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING
IN, LIKELY KEEPING COOL/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE ONLY INTERESTING AVIATION IMPACT
BEING GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS. THESE WILL
LIKELY RELAX A BIT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AS EASTERLY FLOW AND
MOISTURE INCREASES EARLY ON SATURDAY, SOME CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS
LIKE MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE VFR. OVERALL, A VERY LOW IMPACT TAF
PERIOD IS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION
SATURDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAILY RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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