002
FXUS62 KCAE 040019
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
819 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THOUGH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES CARRY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CALM AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
WITH PERSISTENT COOL AND DRY ADVECTION. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE
OVERNIGHT IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTLE 250MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT, BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL AND DRY ADVECTION
WILL STILL HELP PUSH LOW TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50'S.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO
GRADUALLY WARM.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA
SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. UPPER RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD BRING A PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES THAT NEAR THE MID TO UPPER 70S, THOUGH A COUPLE
PLACES MAY PUSH TOWARD 80 AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING MOISTURE
THAT SLOWLY INCREASES, BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. SUNDAY SEES
MUCH OF THE SAME EXCEPT MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER A
PWAT'S APPROACH 1-1.2". 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW MORE LIMITED MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS AND THUS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP'S TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A
COUPLE SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE HERE BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED BY ANY MEANS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD WARM A BIT
(LOW 80S) AS FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDWEEK WITH SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A BIT OF A DRIER
TREND IN THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING OFF SHORE WITH
UPPER RIDING GROWING WEAKER THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALLOWING
INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO OCCUR BUT
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING TAPPED INTO HAS TRENDED LOWER AND
THUS POP'S MAX OUT AT SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE YESTERDAY SHOWED PWAT'S REACHING
AS HIGH AS 160-170% OF NORMAL BUT THE 12Z GEFS AND 06Z EC
ENSEMBLE NOW PEAK BETWEEN 110-140% OF NORMAL. THUS ANY RAIN
CHANCES NEXT WEEK MAY END UP BEING A BIT MORE ISOLATED THAT
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL TREND
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION, BUT WITH THE CURRENT
DOWNWARD TREND IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, POP'S
HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES THEN COOL DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING
IN, LIKELY KEEPING COOL/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST.
THAT SAID, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TERMINALS WILL ONLY SEE THE
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF OGB SAW
SOME OF THE LOWER CLOUDS, STILL VFR, AT TIMES. THESE LOWER
CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HOLD OFF TIL AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ELEVATED NEAR 5 KTS OVERNIGHT, THEN SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION
SATURDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAILY RESTRICTIONS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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