134
FXUS62 KCAE 041028
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
628 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MID- WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA, FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND
DRY AIR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WEATHER LIKELY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE DURING THE NEAR TERM,
LEADING TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. GOES DERIVED PWAT
VALUES RANGE FROM 0.6 TO 0.8 INCHES THIS MORNING BUT WILL RISE
TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW PULLS
MOISTURE INTO THE FA. RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL GENERALLY
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AND DRY MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL INHIBIT SHOWERS. IT'S POSSIBLE
THAT WE MAY SEE A SPRINKLE THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN THE
SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER, HOWEVER MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS
UNLIKELY TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH
VALUES AROUND 80 DEGREES UNDER AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
60S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.
- MORE SUNSHINE WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NOT MUCH CHANGE SINCE THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE IN REGARDS TO
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. UPPER RIDGING HOLDS STRONG THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE FA AND A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, MAINLY MANIFESTING AS MORE CLOUD COVER. WHILE SOME OF
THE CAMS, SUCH AS THE HRRR, SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY, MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATE AMPLE
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING
ALOFT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. ONSHORE FLOW MAY WEAKEN ON
MONDAY AS INDICATED BY A DECREASE IN PWATS. NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS
DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMING TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS. HAVING SAID THAT, THERE COULD STILL BE A
PASSING SHOWER OR TWO DUE TO CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WHEN MOISTURE IS HIGHER. ANY
RAIN THAT FALLS APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT AND WILL NOT
PUT A DENT IN ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM AND DRY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
- THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- A DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE
OUT THE EXTENDED.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRIER SOLUTION DURING THE EXTENDED,
ESPECIALLY PERTAINING TO THE MID-WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPPER
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SLIGHTLY AS A FAST-MOVING TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH COVERAGE MAY
END UP MORE ISOLATED THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NBM. THE THUNDER CHANCES WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA BUT SEVERE
PARAMETERS APPEAR UNIMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME WITH CAPE AT OR
BELOW 500 J/KG. REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, A
CANADIAN AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY LEADING TO MOISTURE
INCREASES THROUGH EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW. RIDGING AND DRY MID-
LEVELS WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION SO WE BELIEVE THAT
SHOWERS AT THE TERMINALS ARE UNLIKELY. WINDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WILL BE OUT OF THE E OR ENE FROM 5 TO 10 KTS. WINDS
SHOULD STAY UP TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR CUB AND POSSIBLY AGS. WITH
MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE SEE LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AND MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. WITH HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WIDESPREAD FOG IS LESS LIKELY
THAN STRATUS BUT CONFIDENCE OVERALL IS LOW AT THIS POINT WITH
LITTLE INDICATION FOR RESTRICTIONS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF RESTRICTIONS EACH MORNING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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