971
FXUS62 KCAE 041649
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1249 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY WITH THE
CHANCE OF A FEW PASSING SHOWERS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MID-WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOLER AND DRY AIR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- QUIET AND DRY WEATHER LIKELY.
THE QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS MOST
NOTABLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA WHERE GOES IMAGERY
INDICATES PWS ARE BACK NEAR 1.4", FALLING BELOW 1" AGAIN IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE OUT OF
THE EAST IN THE 925-850 HPA LAYER, HELPING FUEL THIS RISE IN
MOISTURE. EXPECTING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR 80F FOR MOST. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OUT OF
THE EAST OR NORTHEAST BETWEEN 8 AND 12 MPH. A MORE DEFINED MOISTURE
SURGE LOOKS LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO ROTATE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED IN THE MID-ATLANTIC). PWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR 1.6" OR MORE IN THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS PER HREF GUIDANCE NEAR THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SO BY EARLY
SUNDAY, CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN DEVELOPING IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND MOVING INTO THE CSRA BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. LOWS
WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN LATELY CONSIDERING THE
INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
- MORE SUNSHINE WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
UPPER RIDGE STILL ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES FURTHER EAST OFF THE COAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC
MOISTURE MOVING INLAND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
THE CSRA ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY ACROSS THAT AREA. FURTHER NORTH, ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE, IT MAY END UP BEING SHALLOWER WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT STILL, ALONG WITH THAT AREA BEING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. THAT SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT ANY RAIN FORMATION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE PEE DEE SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY,
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS AND MAY STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY. ONSHORE FLOW MAY
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY, LIMITING MOISTURE ADVECTION INLAND. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE ARE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. EVEN SO, AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/CSRA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION STILL EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM AND DRY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
- COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- A DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE
OUT THE EXTENDED.
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND EVENTUAL COLD FRONT. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CARVE INTO AND FORCE THE RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA SOUTHWESTWARD BY MID-WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO
START OFF THE DAY WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK,
SO AT THIS TIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY MORNING, AND IT WILL
TAKE THE RAIN CHANCES AND THE HEAT ALONG WITH IT. COOLER, DRIER,
AND MORE AUTUMNLIKE CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE AUGUSTA SITES ON
SUNDAY MORNING.
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS NOTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND
THIS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEING THE CASE AS THE DAY
GOES ALONG. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA IS RESULTING IN SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUA THROUGH
PEAK HEATING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST. TONIGHT, MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE AUGUSTA
TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP SOMETIME AFTER 10Z, WITH
SHOWERS LOOKING INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THERE IN THE 11Z-16Z TIMEFRAME
ON SUNDAY. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH OF THESE. AT
CAE/CUB/OGB, THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD THE BEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH, KEEPING RESTRICTIONS/RAIN CHANCES
LOW INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF RESTRICTIONS EACH MORNING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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