679
FXUS62 KCAE 050005
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY WITH THE
CHANCE OF A FEW PASSING SHOWERS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MID-WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOLER AND DRY AIR.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- QUIET AND DRY WEATHER LIKELY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND ASSOCIATED
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL START TO SWING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT,
INCREASING CLOUD COVER BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING ANY RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH 7AM. THE INCREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AS THIS
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE
MID 60'S, A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS. OTHERWISE,
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN NULL, EVEN CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE
IN THE CSRA UNTIL WE GET LATER ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
- MORE SUNSHINE WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
UPPER RIDGE STILL ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES FURTHER EAST OFF THE COAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC
MOISTURE MOVING INLAND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
THE CSRA ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY ACROSS THAT AREA. FURTHER NORTH, ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE, IT MAY END UP BEING SHALLOWER WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT STILL, ALONG WITH THAT AREA BEING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. THAT SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT ANY RAIN FORMATION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND THE PEE DEE SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY,
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS AND MAY STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY. ONSHORE FLOW MAY
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY, LIMITING MOISTURE ADVECTION INLAND. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE ARE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. EVEN SO, AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN MIDLANDS/CSRA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION STILL EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM AND DRY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
- COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- A DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE
OUT THE EXTENDED.
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND EVENTUAL COLD FRONT. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CARVE INTO AND FORCE THE RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN
DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA SOUTHWESTWARD BY MID-WEEK. THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO
START OFF THE DAY WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK,
SO AT THIS TIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY MORNING, AND IT WILL
TAKE THE RAIN CHANCES AND THE HEAT ALONG WITH IT. COOLER, DRIER,
AND MORE AUTUMN LIKE CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AT THE AUGUSTA
SITES ON SUNDAY MORNING.
SOME SCATTERED LOW, BUT STILL VFR, AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEING SEEN ON SATELLITE AND VIA OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR CEILINGS TO AGS AND DNL ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z OR
SO. AGS AND DNL HAS A CHANCE TO SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE COAST. THE OTHER 3
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
STARTING OUT AROUND 4 OR 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KTS AFTER ABOUT 15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF RESTRICTIONS EACH MORNING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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