309
FXUS62 KCAE 051039
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
639 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND TODAY WITH THE CHANCE
OF A FEW PASSING SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE CSRA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
RIDGING IN PLACE. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MID-
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, FOLLOWED
BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRY AIR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A FEW SHOWERS TODAY MAINLY IN THE CSRA
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST
TODAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AND THE
CSRA. MEAN PWAT VALUES FROM THE HREF RANGE FROM 1.6 TO 1.8
INCHES IN EASTERN GA WHILE ONLY AROUND 1 INCH IN THE PEE DEE AND
CATAWBA REGIONS. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING INTO THE REGION
WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA
WITH DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH HINDERING CONVECTION. VERY WEAK
MUCAPE VALUES THIS MORNING AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUGGEST A
THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT POSES NO SEVERE THREAT. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION, AND DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST WE EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
IN THE SOUTHERN FA. IT MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER TO THE NORTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE
60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DECREASING CLOUDS WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY.
- PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY ON TUESDAY.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD ON MONDAY, FLATTENING OUT ON
TUESDAY AS A TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM,
KEEPING HIGH PWATS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, ONSHORE FLOW
MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY, LIMITING MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS
TRANSLATES TO DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY AND LOWER
RAIN CHANCES, THOUGH A PASSING SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE CSRA. TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY
RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
VALUES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- A DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE
OUT THE EXTENDED.
UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY, PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
BUT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MEANING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP ARE UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
COLD FRONT CAN PUSH THROUGH THE FA. A COOL, DRY AIR MASS WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT THE AUGUSTA SITES
TODAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TODAY AND COULD PROMOTE MVFR CEILINGS AT AGS AND DNL AROUND 12Z.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN IN FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION THEN
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE UNLIKELY. WITH
MUCH DIRER AIR OVER THE CAE AND CUB TERMINALS THEY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER
ABOUT 15Z, BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
RESTRICTIONS EACH MORNING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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