220
FXUS62 KCAE 051621
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1221 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING IN PLACE. THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MID-WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AND DRY AIR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
A RANGE OF WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY,
RANGING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION TO CLOUDY AND
RAINY IN THE CSRA. THE SETUP FOR A SCENARIO LIKE THIS IS CLASSIC,
WITH THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC, RIDGING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THIS, AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS WORKING ITS WAY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH COASTAL SC AND GA. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS THE CSRA, WITH PWS NEAR 2" SHOWING
IN SPC MESOANALYSIS. AS THIS WORKS ITS WAY TOWARDS THE AREA, EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
CLOUDS EITHER HANGING ON AS LONG OR EVEN INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
CLOUD COVER HAS YIELDED A TEMP GRADIENT AS OF THIS HOUR, WITH TEMPS
AROUND 80F ALONG OUT NC BORDER AND IN THE UPPER 60S IN OUR GEORGIA
COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOW/MID 80S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. ITS TRICKY IN THE
MIDDLE (AS PER USUAL), WITH BREAKS IN CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
TEMPS BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FORECAST IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS.
BEST FORCING FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD
TONIGHT, WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT EARLY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD, PUSHING INTO THE CSRA BY MID-MORNING MONDAY. LOWS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DECREASING CLOUDS WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY ON TUESDAY.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS.
RIDGE REMAINS ALOFT TO START OFF THE WEEK, THEN BEGINS TO FLATTEN
OUT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FOR THE MOST PART AT THE SURFACE THE
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE EAST ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH POSSIBLY LESS MOISTURE ADVECTION. COULD STILL
SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE INLAND, VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
SUNDAY. SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S POSSIBLE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRIER AS SURFACE WINDS TURN
MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH, BUT REMAIN LIGHT. WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER AND MORE SUN TUESDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE EVEN
WARMER, WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- A DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE OUT
THE EXTENDED.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH AS THE DIGGING
TROUGH ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE COLDER AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO REALLY BEGIN
PUSHING INTO THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT, ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW DUE
TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. BY THURSDAY THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS MAY STILL BE
FOUND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTING
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MUCH CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER READING
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RESTRICTIONS ARE IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY AT THE AUGUSTA AND
COLUMBIA TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AT THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.
THE CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY RESTRICTION LADEN
THIS MORNING, WITH MVFR OR IFR CIGS NOTED AT ONE POINT OR
ANOTHER AT ALL SITES. CLEARING IS BEING OBSERVED AT ORANGEBURG,
BUT THE COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA SITES CONTINUE TO SEE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN COMMON IN AUGUSTA, WITH
VISIBILITIES ROUTINELY DOWN TO 2SM AT TIMES. EXPECTING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BEING A PROBLEM HERE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON.
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BUT GUIDANCE DOES
EVENTUALLY SHOW CEILINGS COMING DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR AGAIN LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS REDEVELOP WITHIN FAVORABLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS SHOULD BE AT AGS/DNL BUT
CAE/CUB/OGB MAY SEE IT AS WELL. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
RESTRICTIONS EACH MORNING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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