023
FXUS62 KCAE 060013
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
813 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING IN PLACE. THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MID-WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AND DRY AIR.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CLOUDY AND WARMER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT A SWATH OF LOWER PWAT'S WILL PIVOT
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND KEEP PRECIP LOW CHANCES INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUD COVER AND SOME WEAK BOUNDARY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
WARM AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60'S. ANOTHER
SUBTLE INVERTED TROUGH AND COUPLED SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL ROTATE
INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN UNTIL LATER MONDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DECREASING CLOUDS WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY ON TUESDAY.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS.
RIDGE REMAINS ALOFT TO START OFF THE WEEK, THEN BEGINS TO FLATTEN
OUT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FOR THE MOST PART AT THE SURFACE THE
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE EAST ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH POSSIBLY LESS MOISTURE ADVECTION. COULD STILL
SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE INLAND, VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
SUNDAY. SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S POSSIBLE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRIER AS SURFACE WINDS TURN
MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH, BUT REMAIN LIGHT. WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER AND MORE SUN TUESDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE EVEN
WARMER, WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- A DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO CLOSE OUT
THE EXTENDED.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH AS THE DIGGING
TROUGH ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE COLDER AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO REALLY BEGIN
PUSHING INTO THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT, ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW DUE
TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. BY THURSDAY THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS MAY STILL BE
FOUND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTING
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MUCH CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER READING
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MVFR ANTICIPATED
AROUND DAYBREAK AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH SOME SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS BEING NOTED
TO START THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AROUND
10-12Z, INCLUDING CAE AND CUB BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 18Z AT EACH TERMINALS, BUT
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS WE MOVE FORWARD. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED NEAR OGB, AGS, AND DNL. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR CAE AND CUB, SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT
OF THEIR RESPECTIVE TAFS. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AFTER ABOUT 12Z, AND INCREASING
TO 5-10 KTS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY
AFTER ABOUT 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, KEEPING POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING RESTRICTIONS EACH DAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS
FORECAST TO BE WEDNESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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