768
FXUS62 KCAE 060539
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
139 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY FAVORING THE I-26 CORRIDOR
AND SOUTH. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK WITH RIDGING IN PLACE. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MID-WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOLER AND DRY AIR TO END THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARMER WITH CHANCES OF RAIN AGAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF I-26
CORRIDOR
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PHASING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST REGION WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS
WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS (140-160 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BIT OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY SO AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER 80S TODAY.
TONIGHT, PWATS LOWER AS SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE
AREA WITH 700MB WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO MORE
SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. WHILE SOME INITIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING, GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND THIS MAY LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON TUESDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT) FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO
DURING THE DAY FROM CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.
THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SHARP
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THOUGH, PROMOTING ANOTHER WARM DAY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LATEST CAMS PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS FROM ONSHORE FLOW AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL SHOULD
BE LIGHT WITH LIMITED IMPACTS. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER
TO MID 80S, SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES. THE TROUGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT POSITIONED IN THE
APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE FA SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
LOW FALL INTO THE MID-60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- A DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO
CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED.
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA. CLOUDS INCREASE WITH SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS LIMITED, THEREFORE
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
COLD FRONT CAN CLEAR THE FA, BUT SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FILTERS IN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN BREEZY POST-
FRONTAL WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
AFTER THURSDAY WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, BUT COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY, THEN MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND
DAYBREAK WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR STRATOCUMULUS EXPANDING INLAND AT THIS TIME AND
EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND 10Z-12Z ALL TERMINALS
WHICH MAY LAST THROUGH 16Z-18Z. EXPECT SOME PASSING SHOWERS LATE
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FAVORING AGS/DNL/OGB WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE AT CAE/CUB BUT WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
VCSH ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS BY 15Z AND SHIFT
A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, KEEPING POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING RESTRICTIONS EACH DAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE WEDNESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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