379
FXUS62 KCAE 061659
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1259 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH RIDGING IN PLACE. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF
RAIN COMES MID-WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA, FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRY AIR TO
END THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA.
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OF THIS
WRITING, WITH LOW CLOUDS COMMON ACROSS THE MIDLANDS, WITH MOSTLY
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NOTED ELSEWHERE. MOISTURE IS INCREASING AHEAD OF
ANOTHER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH, WITH 1.8"-2" PWS PER GOES IMAGERY
PUSHING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. AS A
RESULT, CUMULUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA, LIKELY
FORETELLING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HREF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 90TH PERCENTILE PWS WILL PUSH THROUGH
THIS AFTER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, HELPING TO SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND (MAYBE) AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THIS PART OF THE
FA. HREF MEAN SOUNDING SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE COULD BE IN THE
500-750 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE SUN
BEGINNING TO PEAK OUT IN THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
FURTHER NORTH, THE MOISTURE ADVECTION ISN'T FORECAST TO BE AS
ROBUST, LEADING TO LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS AND LIKELY NO RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. HIGHS
SHOULD END UP IN THE LOW 80S. BEHIND THIS SURGE OF PWS WILL BE
ANOTHER SURGE OF DRIER AIR, LEADING TO CLOUDS GENERALLY CLEARING
OUT. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BECOME THE
PREDOMINANT ISSUE LATER TONIGHT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKELY THAT
WE'LL SEE SOME STRATUS DEVELOP AGAIN AS TEMPS COOL AND MOISTURE
PUSHES BACK IN LATE IN THE PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FAVORED AGAIN AS A LOW-LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 15-20
KNOTS IS SHOWN IN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS, TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- MOSTLY DRY ON TUESDAY.
- COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY, WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH AND
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPING MAJORITY OF THE DAY DRY. WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FORECAST, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 80S. WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
STILL POSSIBLE, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN, BUT IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER MOVING INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON, ANY RAIN WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT. KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ON TAP FOR NOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WARM
ADVECTION STARTS, ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THIS IS THE DAY THAT CHANGE BEGINS TO HAPPEN. UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE IT WILL BE DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, AND LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT, AND BEST
DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE AREA, SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS.
ONE MORE WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 80S ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN A COLDER
AIRMASS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE
50S IN THE PEE DEE, TO AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A MOSTLY DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING, THERE MAY STILL BE A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS TO START OFF THE DAY BEFORE THE DRIER
AIR BEGINS PUSHING IN. BIGGEST CHANGE IS GOING TO BE THE NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT BEGIN TO SETTING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH A LOW-
LEVEL WEDGE PATTERN BEGINNING TO SET UP INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS IS GOING TO BRING A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD ADVECTION, KEEPING
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL WITH READINGS ONLY UP AROUND
70 DEGREES. ADD IN A BREEZE THROUGH THE DAY, AND THAT AUTUMN
FEELING WILL FINALLY BE IN THE AIR. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST ALONG THE
STALLED OUT COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH SOME MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST, AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
IT GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS AND GUSTS UP SOME THROUGH THE DAY ONCE AGAIN, AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. FOR BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY, AND CAN NOT RULE OUT
THE NEED FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER A NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES IS NOT ALWAYS AS CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER WIND
GUSTS. WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED IF WINDS WERE MORE WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY. SO FOR NOW, NO LAKE WIND ADVISORY EXPECTED, BUT WILL
WATCH MODEL TRENDS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE TRACKING NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE, AND WITH IT A SLIGHT MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH LOWER WINDS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED AT AREA TAF SITES RIGHT
NOW, WITH THIS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER DAY OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH HAS YIELDED MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OUT AND ABOUT AS WELL, WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MOST COMMON AT
AGS/DNL/OGB, WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT THE
COLUMBIA SITES. MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING, WITH THIS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WARM UP A BIT. STRATO
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY TAKE OVER, RISING TO 3-4 KFT AS SHOWERS
DEVELOP. AFTER THE AXIS OF HIGHER PWS AND INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH PASS TO THE WEST, AN AREA OF LOWER PW SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE AREA AND CLEAR CLOUDS OUT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY SUGGESTING SOME FOG/STRATUS BUILDING INTO
THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF A
LOW-LEVEL JET MAKES ME HESITANT TO FORECAST FOG, SO WILL DO
KIND OF A BLEND OF THE TWO AS GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT THAT.
REGARDLESS, A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY AFTER
09Z TONIGHT, LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY
BETWEEN 4KTS AND 8KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MID WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, KEEPING POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING RESTRICTIONS EACH DAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE WEDNESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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