658
FXUS62 KCAE 070003
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
803 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH RIDGING IN PLACE. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN
COMES MID-WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA,
FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRY AIR TO END THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AS
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH PIVOTS WEST OF THE REGION. THIS HAS
ALSO USHERED IN DRIER AIR FOR THE TIME BEING. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TOMORROW,
WHICH SHOULD USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS TO
THE AREA DUE TO RESURGENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG AS WELL. HOWEVER, A LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, WHICH WOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FOG IN THE
EARLY MORNING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT, LOWS ARE LIKELY TO
BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- MOSTLY DRY ON TUESDAY.
- COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY, WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH AND
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPING MAJORITY OF THE DAY DRY. WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FORECAST, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 80S. WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
STILL POSSIBLE, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN, BUT IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER MOVING INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON, ANY RAIN WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT. KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ON TAP FOR NOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WARM
ADVECTION STARTS, ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THIS IS THE DAY THAT CHANGE BEGINS TO HAPPEN. UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE IT WILL BE DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, AND LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT, AND BEST
DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE AREA, SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS.
ONE MORE WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 80S ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN A COLDER
AIRMASS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE
50S IN THE PEE DEE, TO AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A MOSTLY DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING, THERE MAY STILL BE A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS TO START OFF THE DAY BEFORE THE DRIER
AIR BEGINS PUSHING IN. BIGGEST CHANGE IS GOING TO BE THE NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT BEGIN TO SETTING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH A LOW-
LEVEL WEDGE PATTERN BEGINNING TO SET UP INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS IS GOING TO BRING A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD ADVECTION, KEEPING
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL WITH READINGS ONLY UP AROUND
70 DEGREES. ADD IN A BREEZE THROUGH THE DAY, AND THAT AUTUMN
FEELING WILL FINALLY BE IN THE AIR. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST ALONG THE
STALLED OUT COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH SOME MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST, AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
IT GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS AND GUSTS UP SOME THROUGH THE DAY ONCE AGAIN, AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. FOR BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY, AND CAN NOT RULE OUT
THE NEED FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER A NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES IS NOT ALWAYS AS CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER WIND
GUSTS. WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED IF WINDS WERE MORE WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY. SO FOR NOW, NO LAKE WIND ADVISORY EXPECTED, BUT WILL
WATCH MODEL TRENDS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE TRACKING NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE, AND WITH IT A SLIGHT MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH LOWER WINDS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST BEFORE CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE SEEN THIS EVENING AS SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WANES, THOUGH SOME
FEW TO SCT MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER REMAINS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE
EAST GENERALLY AS A 20-25 KT LLJ DEVELOPS AFTER 03-06Z. WINDS
REMAINING ELEVATED SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE A GREATER FOG RISK
AFTER 07-09Z, THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES HINT A COUPLE SPOTS MAY SEE
WINDS BECOME NEARLY CALM. THE RECENT HRRR RUN AND NBM GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED IFR RESTRICTIONS AT THE
TAF SITES AFTER 09Z AS ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS BOUNTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT I
BELIEVE STRATUS AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL BE THE GREATER
RISK. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 14-15Z
TOWARD MVFR AS WINDS PICK UP AT 4-6 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 17-19Z AS
DEEPER MIXING OCCURS. A COUPLE MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD IN THE
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY, KEEPING POTENTIAL FOR MORNING
RESTRICTIONS. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO ALSO BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
IT FOR THE LATE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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