740
FXUS62 KCAE 071029
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
629 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH RIDGING IN PLACE. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN
COMES MID-WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA,
FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRY AIR TO END THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH UPPER RIDGING IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA, CENTERED NEAR SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ELEVATED HUMIDITY. INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL
LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. COVERAGE WILL
BE LIMITED THE FARTHER INLAND THESE SHOWERS PROGRESS AS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. AS A RESULT, LOWS REMAIN
WARMER THAN AVERAGE OVERNIGHT, IN THE MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
- COOLER, DRIER AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN WARM AND MOIST WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AROUND
150-180 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. DESPITE THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY
BE WEAK DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND POOR LAPSE RATES AND
WEAK SHEAR SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE BEST
UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS
VA/NC SO EXPECTING MAINLY A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RECENTLY, AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH, ALTHOUGH IF SOME
TRAINING OCCURS VALUES COULD BE HIGHER. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S WESTERN MIDLANDS TO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER
80S IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND LOWER CSRA.
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS IN ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE WINDS
STAYING UP OVERNIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING,
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING OF THE SOUTHWARD SINKING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION USHERING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE
REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST WITH A
STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO AROUND 1.6
INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY 15 DEGREES COLDER
THAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S WITH CONTINUED COOL ADVECTION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRI/SAT WITH COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD GENERALLY FEATURES A COOL AND DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE 500MB GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
PHASING WITH SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE COAST BY
SUNDAY. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME MOISTURE
COULD MOVE BACK OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS IF THE LOW IS CLOSER TO THE COAST. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH AND MAY REQUIRE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY. THE NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS A WEST
OR NORTHWESTERLY FETCH WOULD BE, SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING VFR.
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES NORTHWEST OF
THE TERMINALS. SOME TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS AS A RESULT POSSIBLE
AT THE TERMINALS BUT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. ONCE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIXES OUT, RESTRICTIONS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TODAY,
ESPECIALLY AT OGB, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY, KEEPING POTENTIAL FOR MORNING
RESTRICTIONS. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO ALSO BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
IT FOR THE LATE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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