364
FXUS62 KCAE 071645
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1245 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MID-WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRY AIR TO END THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE WEATHER IS FAIRLY BENIGN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY,
WITH ANOTHER MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY. CUMULUS IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND WILL LIKELY BE COPIOUS THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. PWS WITH THIS ROUND ARE LOWER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO GET
INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE.
OVERNIGHT, WE'LL SEE THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED ACROSS
THE AREA SHIFT FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INCREASING AND POOLING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OVERNIGHT, WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AGAIN. LOOK FOR LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
- COOLER, DRIER, AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY, WITH RAINFALL CHANCES
ALSO INCREASING ALONG WITH IT. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ON THE WEAKER SIDE, ALONG WITH SHEAR, SO SEVERE THREAT IS
MINIMAL AT BEST. HOWEVER DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A BROKEN LINE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL NOT BE HIGH, WITH TOTALS AROUND A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WESTERN MIDLANDS TO THE MID AND
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND LOWER CSRA.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
BUILDS IN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING NORTH
OF THE REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE
WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING,
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION USHERING IN
DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION. MUCH MORE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ON THE
STRONGER SIDE THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
EXPECTED. WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER AREA LAKES, STILL
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS FOR
TEMPERATURE, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THURSDAY, NEARLY 15
DEGREES COLDER THAN WHAT WE FELT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH
CONTINUED COOL ADVECTION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRI/SAT WITH COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT.
NOT MUCH CHANGE OVER THE LONGER TERM WITH THE LATEST NBM
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE.
THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH SOME MOISTURE BACK INLAND ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN INTO SATURDAY. MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS, WITH ONLY EXTREME
EASTERN AREAS POSSIBLY GETTING BRUSHED BY A BRIEF SHOWER
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP BREEZY WINDS OVER THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY. SOME WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, THE FETCH OVER AREA LAKES IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE WIND CRITERIA BEING MET, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE LOW DEVELOPS.
BY SUNDAY THE LOW WILL BE TRACKING AWAY FROM THE REGION UP THE
EAST COAST, TAKING MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE RETURNING IN SHORT ORDER ACROSS THE TAF SITES,
WITH IT LIKELY PERSISTING UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION,
SLOWLY CONTINUING TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. SOME MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AGAIN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHER PWS SHOULD YIELD SOME MORE CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. GENERALLY THINK THAT THESE
WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM OUT OF THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE MVFR (WHERE THEY'VE BEEN FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING) TO VFR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TONIGHT, THE CUMULUS
THAT DOES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD QUICKLY DECLINE. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. REFS/NBM/CONSHORT/HRRR
ARE ALL INDICATIVE THAT MVFR TO IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP IN THIS
REGIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY
THE END OF THIS PERIOD BUT THESE GENERALLY LOOK TO PUSH INTO THE
ARE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY, KEEPING POTENTIAL FOR MORNING
RESTRICTIONS. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO ALSO BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK
TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
IT FOR THE LATE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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