043
FXUS62 KCAE 080020
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
820 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES MID-WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRY AIR TO END THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING WITH
JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AN
APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS THE FLOW TO
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN ADDITION, THE LOW LEVEL JET
IS LIKELY TO BE LACKING, WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. AREAS NEAR RIVERS AND LAKES WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE, IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
- COOLER, DRIER, AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY, WITH RAINFALL CHANCES
ALSO INCREASING ALONG WITH IT. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ON THE WEAKER SIDE, ALONG WITH SHEAR, SO SEVERE THREAT IS
MINIMAL AT BEST. HOWEVER DO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A BROKEN LINE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL NOT BE HIGH, WITH TOTALS AROUND A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR ONE MORE DAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S WESTERN MIDLANDS TO THE MID AND
POSSIBLY UPPER 80S IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND LOWER CSRA.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
BUILDS IN ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING NORTH
OF THE REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE
WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING,
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION USHERING IN
DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION. MUCH MORE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE FRONT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ON THE
STRONGER SIDE THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
EXPECTED. WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER AREA LAKES, STILL
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS FOR
TEMPERATURE, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THURSDAY, NEARLY 15
DEGREES COLDER THAN WHAT WE FELT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH
CONTINUED COOL ADVECTION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRI/SAT WITH COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT.
NOT MUCH CHANGE OVER THE LONGER TERM WITH THE LATEST NBM
GUIDANCE. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE.
THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH SOME MOISTURE BACK INLAND ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN INTO SATURDAY. MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS, WITH ONLY EXTREME
EASTERN AREAS POSSIBLY GETTING BRUSHED BY A BRIEF SHOWER
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP BREEZY WINDS OVER THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY. SOME WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, THE FETCH OVER AREA LAKES IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE WIND CRITERIA BEING MET, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE LOW DEVELOPS.
BY SUNDAY THE LOW WILL BE TRACKING AWAY FROM THE REGION UP THE
EAST COAST, TAKING MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WANING CUMULUS ARE SEEN THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF BATCH OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THAT
SHOULD ALSO WANE IN THE COMING HOURS. WINDS ARE BECOMING FAIRLY
LIGHT, BUT STILL OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. A LLJ IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND THUS WINDS LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, IS EXPECTED TO YIELD
STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 08-10Z. RECENT LAMP,
HRRR, AND NBM GUIDANCE HAVE GROWN INCREASINGLY AGGRESSIVE WITH
IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES, PREDOMINATELY
FROM STRATUS, BUT ALSO POSSIBLY FROM FOG, ESPECIALLY NEAR
AGS/OGB. THESE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK BEFORE MIXING ALLOWS THE STRATUS DECK TO LIFT
SOME AND BRING MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL AROUND 17-19Z. BROKEN MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THEN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 5-7 KT WINDS
SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE
BECOMING WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO NEAR THE COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA
TERMINALS AROUND 18-20Z AND OGB BETWEEN 19-21Z, POSSIBLY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS NEAR THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND THUS A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED
TO ADDRESS THIS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BRINGING LOWER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS
AND LOW PROBABILITIES FOR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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