502
FXUS62 KCAE 080606
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
206 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COOLER, DRIER AND BREEZY
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND AS A
RESULT, PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WHILE
VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER MILE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD, WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY, MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY, STILL WELL NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE
WITH A RELATIVELY HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH THE
STRONGEST UPPER FORCING REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS HAS SOMEWHAT LOWERED THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH
BLENDED GUIDANCE STILL HAS THUNDERSTORM PROBS AROUND 30 PERCENT,
HIGHEST IN THE CSRA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES AND WHILE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE,
IN ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WITH HREF PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. OVERALL, EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF
I-20. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS, BRINGING DRIER AIR AND PREVENTING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER AND BREEZY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SINKING
SOUTHWARD AND STALLING AT THE COAST. ALOFT, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO CUTOFF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH ENHANCES JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY WITH PWATS FALLING TO 30-50 PERCENT
OF NORMAL WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP
MIXING EXPECTED WITH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING MIXED DUE TO A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WHICH MAY REQUIRE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY.
FRIDAY, COOL AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUE WITH CONTINUED
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SURFACE HIGH AND INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE. AS SOME NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BEGINS LIFTING NORTHWARD AND PHASING WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY INDUCING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST
ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME MOISTURE
RETURNING BACK INLAND INTO PARTS OF THE MIDLANDS FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAY PUSH INLAND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S, ALTHOUGH LOW
TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS ARE LIKELY
TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND
- BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
- GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS TO MID-ATLANTIC
REGION, THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE NOT CERTAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY BUT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST AS
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT ALL THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT OGB/AGS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND WORSEN THROUGH SUNRISE. IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN POTENTIAL LIFR POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AFTER ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTED
THROUGH THE DAY YESTERDAY. THE ONE THING THAT MODELS DID NOT
HANDLE WELL TO THIS POINT IS THE LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE AROUND
5-6KFT. WHILE STILL THINK THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT
FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP, THIS MAY KEEP VISIBILITIES HIGHER THAN
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. STILL, HAVE INCLUDED IFR/LIFR
VISIBILITIES AT LEAST IN A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN. A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
INCLUDED A PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTS TO
THE TERMINALS WITH TSRA MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AUGUSTA AND
ORANGEBURG TERMINALS. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BRINGING LOWER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS BUT SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. DRY
CONDITIONS AND LOW PROBABILITIES FOR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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