542
FXUS62 KCAE 081701
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
101 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COOLER, DRIER AND
BREEZY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY.
- LAKE WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 2A TONIGHT.
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA AS A MUCH
ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT ENCROACHES UPON THE AREA. TROUGH AXIS IS
SLOWLY APPROACHING, HELPING TO PROVIDE A BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE
LOW-LEVELS, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED FAIRLY ROBUST MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH PWS IN THE 1.6"-1.9"
RANGE PER GOES IMAGERY, AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70. WITH SUNSHINE HELPING TEMPS GET INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S AS OF THIS EARLY AFTERNOON, SOME INSTABILITY HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IS BASICALLY ALONG OUR
BORDER WITH GSP AND IS CURRENTLY SPARKING SHOWERS/STORMS NOW
MOVING INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS. THESE WILL LIKELY BE BENIGN
IN NATURE, WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY
THREATS. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AS THE
DAY MOVES ALONG, GRADUALLY PUSHING RAIN CHANCES EASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST, THEN THE NORTH, AND THEN THE NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT.
COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN EARNEST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BEHIND THE
FRONT, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST 20-30 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED,
BEGINNING AT 2A. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON AREA LAKES
DESPITE THE WINDS NOT BEING FROM A FAVORABLE DIRECTION. TEMPS
SHOULD FALL PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT, GETTING INTO THE MID 50S
NORTH AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER, DRIER, AND BREEZIER.
WELL THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, AND TAKING THOSE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH IT.
BEHIND IT, THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT NOTICEABLE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HIGH PRESSURE
SETTING UP NORTH OF THE REGION FUNNELS COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS. COLD ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE, AND AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH 70 TO 75 ON THURSDAY, THEN THE
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY, WITH ENOUGH DRY AIR
IN PLACE TO KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA RAIN FREE. BY FRIDAY,
A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY ORGANIZED,
AND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER EXTREME EASTERN
MIDLANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STAYING DRY. THE OTHER ISSUE BOTH DAYS WILL BE THE STRONG AND
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY, AND AS THE COASTAL LOW
STARTS TO ORGANIZE ON FRIDAY. THESE WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND
GUSTS, ESPECIALLY ON AREA LAKES, BOTH THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
AND OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES IS
NOT IDEAL, BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT
COMBINED STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARM WATER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MIXING OVER THE LAKE THURSDAY
NIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM ON
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND
- BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
- GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
SURFACE LOW GETS BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATURDAY ALONG THE CAROLINA
COASTLINES, BUT WILL AT LEAST BE TRACKING AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY,
ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. WITH MOISTURE
MOVING INLAND THROUGH SATURDAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. BY SUNDAY A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
SETTING BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
BIGGEST PROBLEM LIKELY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AFTER
06Z AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
RESTRICTIONS ARE BRIEF AND OCCASIONAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPS AND LIFTS TO THE BORDER OF VFR AND MVFR.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE MAYBE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BUT IT
DOESN'T REALLY SEEM LIKE IT SHOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUDS ARE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA TAF SITES AND SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT. GENERALLY, THESE ARE LIMITED LIGHTNING
PRODUCERS RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE AREA, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. GUIDANCE IS DEFINITELY
TOO LOW WITH COVERAGE, SO INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL SITES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY
AROUND OR AFTER 06Z, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND
BECOME GUSTY. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON
THROUGH THE END OF THIS PERIOD. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN AS WELL,
FAVORING A CLEARING OF CLOUDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BRINGING LOWER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS BUT SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. DRY
CONDITIONS AND LOW PROBABILITIES FOR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
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