080
FXUS62 KCAE 090018
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
818 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AIR PUSHES IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. COOLER, DRIER AND BREEZY DURING THE
DAY BOTH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY
CONDITIONS BUT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER/DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT.
- LAKE WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 2AM TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FA THIS EVENING AS A
BATCH OF RAIN REMAINS IN SOUTHERN BAMBERG AND ORANGEBURG
COUNTIES, JUST AHEAD OF IT. GOES PWAT'S SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THEY QUICKLY FALL UNDER 1.5" IN THE
NORTHERN FA AND TOWARD 1.25" IN THE UPSTATE. THIS DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER IN TONIGHT, LARGELY BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO
AN END BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM. COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO PUSH
IN AS FLOW TURNS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH AND THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH. THIS PUSH OF CAA, A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT, AND A DEVELOPING 30-40 KT
LLJ OVERNIGHT, SHOULD BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AFTER 2AM,
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED, THOUGH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
AREA LAKES AND THUS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 2AM TONIGHT, CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER, DRIER, AND BREEZIER.
WELL THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, AND TAKING THOSE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH IT.
BEHIND IT, THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT NOTICEABLE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HIGH PRESSURE
SETTING UP NORTH OF THE REGION FUNNELS COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS. COLD ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE, AND AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH 70 TO 75 ON THURSDAY, THEN THE
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY, WITH ENOUGH DRY AIR
IN PLACE TO KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA RAIN FREE. BY FRIDAY,
A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY ORGANIZED,
AND SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER EXTREME EASTERN
MIDLANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STAYING DRY. THE OTHER ISSUE BOTH DAYS WILL BE THE STRONG AND
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY, AND AS THE COASTAL LOW
STARTS TO ORGANIZE ON FRIDAY. THESE WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND
GUSTS, ESPECIALLY ON AREA LAKES, BOTH THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
AND OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES IS
NOT IDEAL, BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT
COMBINED STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARM WATER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MIXING OVER THE LAKE THURSDAY
NIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM ON
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND
- BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
- GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
SURFACE LOW GETS BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATURDAY ALONG THE CAROLINA
COASTLINES, BUT WILL AT LEAST BE TRACKING AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY,
ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. WITH MOISTURE
MOVING INLAND THROUGH SATURDAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. BY SUNDAY A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
SETTING BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
N/NNE AFTER THE FRONT PASSES BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND NE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS.
WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20 KTS FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN THEY WILL TAPER OFF SOME. WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION, NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY CONDITIONS AND PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
GUSTY NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
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