136
FXUS62 KCAE 091732
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
132 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. COOLER, DRIER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS THIS
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER, DRIER, AND BREEZY.
- LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON IS CAUSING A TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA, SUPPORTING BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BE
CHOPPY ON AREAS LAKES, WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT. TEMPS
WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND THE MODIFIED POLAR AIR MASS
IS ALSO QUITE DRY, WITH DEW POINTS LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR A
WHILE. OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST IN QUITE A WHILE, ALTHOUGH THE
BREEZE WILL STAY UP ENOUGH OVER MOST PLACES TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
HIGHER THAN THEY WOULD BE IN CALM CONDITIONS AS A STRONG SURFACE
INVERSION WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SET UP DUE TO MIXING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DEVELOPING LOW OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY.
- MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN SC ON SATURDAY AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS.
A SHARP DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY, VISIBLE IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON, AND INTERACT WITH A DECAYING
BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH WEDNESDAY'S FRONT. A FAIRLY CLASSIC
DISPLAY OF CYCLOGENESIS IS THEN EXPECTED AS THIS TROUGH TILTS LESS
POSITIVE AND SPINS UP ALONG THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT. WITH A VERY
STRONG SURFACE HIGH STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE NE CONUS, THE LOW
DEVELOPMENT WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY; WIND GUSTS AGAIN 25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY DRY ADVECTION WILL STEADILY WEAKEN FROM
LOW TO UPPER LEVELS THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AS WELL AND SOME
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL WRAP AROUND THE DEVELOPING
LOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CSRA AND EASTERN MIDLANDS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY AS THE LOW STEADILY STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTH. PWAT'S
BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL CLIMB OVER 1.25", MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF I-95, AND THIS IS WHERE THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN. SINCE MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THE
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING, QPF TOTALS SHOULD
REMAIN LOW WITH SOME WAVES OF MODERATE SHOWERS LIKELY. DESPITE
THE DEVELOPING LOW, THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WITH PUSH FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT OVER THE
AREA, SO WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, THEY WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COASTAL LOW PUSHES NORTH AND DRY, BREEZY CONDITIONS FILL IN BEHIND
IT.
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED THE LIFTING COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL DRAG THE PLUME
OF HIGH PWAT'S AWAY FROM OUR AREA. NAEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH A LIMITED SPREAD IN HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BEHIND AS THE LOW EJECTS INTO THE NE CONUS. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A STEADY WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK, DESPITE NORTHERLY COMPONENT LOW LEVEL FLOW.
WITH THIS UPPER RIDGING, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH BELOW AVERAGE PWAT'S AND SOME DOWNSLOPING LIKELY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING
FROM THE EAST ON FRIDAY, BRINGING SOME LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE
TERMINALS. I THINK GENERALLY THE CIGS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW SHOULD
STILL BE MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH THEY MAY DIP LOW ENOUGH AT OGB TO
BRING IN SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LATER IN THE MORNING. WE ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO SEE WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN 20 MPH AT TIMES ON FRIDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON TO THE NORTH WHILE PRESSURE BEGIN TO
FALL TO THE SOUTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY CONDITIONS AND PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
GUSTY NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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