717
FXUS62 KCAE 231322
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
922 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
BREEZY WINDS ARE CAUSING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN TODAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED FIRE RISK.
- CHILLY TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY, BRINGING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. IT REMAINS ON THE
CHILLY SIDE AS OF 9 AM, BUT TEMPS ARE STARTING TO RISE RATHER
QUICKLY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO MID TO UPPER 70S ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH
SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80. WITH SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING AND STRONG MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY, DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SEEM
LIKELY AGAIN, BRINGING AFTERNOON RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-30%. WHILE
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN, THE
AFOREMENTIONED MIXING COULD BRING ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS 20-30 KTS OF
FLOW BETWEEN 850-800MB IS SEEN. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH DRY
FUELS BRINGS ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AND
THUS ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS BACK INTO THE MID 40S, POSSIBLY COOLER.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
BLENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE MOVED
SOUTH ON FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AT BEST, WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SET UP, ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
DROP IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, AND EVEN SOME OF THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS
POSSIBLY SEEING THE UPPER 30S FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE. SATURDAY NIGHT MAY SEE AN
INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH, WHICH MAY HELP TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
- RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL STILL SEE SURFACE RIDGING NORTH OF THE REGION KEEPING
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT, GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW THE APPROACH OF A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH, WHICH WILL BRING SOME
MOISTURE INCREASE OVER TOP OF THE SURFACE HIGH. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY, ALONG WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN
WILL REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE CLOUDS, RAIN, AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST, BUT ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST, WHILE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WESTERLY TO WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY FROM 3-5 KTS, THOUGH A COUPLE LOCATIONS
HAVE SEEN PERIODS OF CALM. A 35KT LLJ REMAINS IN PLACE LOOKING AT
THE KCAE VAD PROFILE. DUE TO THIS AND WINDS BEING SLIGHTLY LIGHTER
THAN EXPECTED, LLWS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE TAF SITES AT 1,000FT.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 14-15Z BEFORE SURFACE
WINDS PICK UP. THE RISK OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG REMAINS LOW THIS
MORNING BEFORE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS STAY OUT OF THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AT 4-8KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TOWARD 15-18 KTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY BECOMING
CALM IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... THIS DRY AIR MASS BRINGS LITTLE CONCERN
FOR RESTRICTIONS THE COMING DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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