048
FXUS62 KCAE 231758
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
158 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
AND CSRA WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS ARE
CAUSING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN TODAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED FIRE RISK.
- CHILLY TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION UNDERNEATH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS LEADING TO ABUNDANTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S. IN ADDITION, A VERY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS PRODUCED RH VALUES IN THE 20-30% RANGE.
WINDS AT 850 MB CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. WITH GOOD
MIXING TODAY, SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. DUE TO THIS, ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE,
RESULTING IN A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THROUGH 7 PM.
TONIGHT: THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE AREA, BUT
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO OUR NORTH. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME WIND OVERNIGHT AND RESULT IN LOWS SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DESPITE BEING CHILLY ONCE AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ZONAL FLOW AT THE BASE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS PERIOD, AND NORTHEAST COLD
ADVECTION WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PW
VALUES MAINLY LESS THAN 0.5" UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH.
EYES WILL REMAIN ON A DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY BRINGING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
CHILLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT MAY MODERATE
SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 40S WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE ACTIVE ALBEIT UNCERTAIN,
THOUGH SOME DETAILS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO FOCUS. OUR ATTENTION
WILL TURN TOWARD AN APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST, POTENTIALLY
CREATING WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS DUE TO
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WHEN
THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OVERHEAD OR POTENTIALLY JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. THOUGH GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, TIMING AND TRACK DISCREPANCIES
UNSURPRISINGLY STILL EXIST. WITH SOME INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT
WE'LL SEE A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN, NBM OUTPUT HAS CHANCE POPS
WHICH SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS DIVE OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST. THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF THIS PATTERN LENDS
ITSELF TO CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
DIURNAL SPREADS WILL BE TEMPERED BY MOISTURE/PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXACT TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PERIOD GIVEN A LARGE SPREAD (5-10 DEGREES BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY) IN THE NBM PERCENTILES.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING
TO 15 KTS OR SO AT TIMES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 23Z.
WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM, BEFORE INCREASING
AND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 15Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
FOG OVERNIGHT IS LOW ONCE AGAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... THIS DRY AIR MASS BRINGS LITTLE CONCERN
FOR RESTRICTIONS THE COMING DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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