366
FXUS62 KCAE 232259
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
659 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
AND CSRA WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS ARE
CAUSING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN TODAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CHILLY TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT.
THE WEATHER REMAINS QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK, REINFORCING
COLD FRONT (IF YOU CAN REALLY CALL IT A FRONT) IS PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS NOTED SOMEWHAT
IN SURFACE WIND FIELDS BUT IT IS ALSO NOTED IN PWS AS A VERY
MODEST UPTICK IN PWS IS BEING NOTED ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL COME WITH LITTLE TO NO WEATHER
THIS EVENING, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT MAYBE BEING
WINDS STAYING ELEVATED SLIGHTLY. OUR AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY,
WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TO NEAR CALM AROUND SUNRISE, FAVORING
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S. CLOUDS AREN'T REALLY
EXPECTED TONIGHT AT ALL.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ZONAL FLOW AT THE BASE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OH
VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS PERIOD, AND NORTHEAST COLD
ADVECTION WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PW
VALUES MAINLY LESS THAN 0.5" UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH.
EYES WILL REMAIN ON A DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY BRINGING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
CHILLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT MAY MODERATE
SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 40S WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE ACTIVE ALBEIT UNCERTAIN,
THOUGH SOME DETAILS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO FOCUS. OUR ATTENTION
WILL TURN TOWARD AN APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST, POTENTIALLY
CREATING WEAK WEDGE CONDITIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS AND AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS DUE TO
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WHEN
THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OVERHEAD OR POTENTIALLY JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. THOUGH GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, TIMING AND TRACK DISCREPANCIES
UNSURPRISINGLY STILL EXIST. WITH SOME INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT
WE'LL SEE A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN, NBM OUTPUT HAS CHANCE POPS
WHICH SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS DIVE OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST. THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF THIS PATTERN LENDS
ITSELF TO CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, THOUGH
DIURNAL SPREADS WILL BE TEMPERED BY MOISTURE/PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXACT TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PERIOD GIVEN A LARGE SPREAD (5-10 DEGREES BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY) IN THE NBM PERCENTILES.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN
THE 3-6 KNOTS RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, WITH CALM WINDS
LIKELY NEAR SUNRISE. THEREAFTER, LOOK FOR WINDS TO BUMP BACK UP
INTO THE 4-8 KNOT RANGE TOMORROW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... THIS DRY AIR MASS BRINGS LITTLE
CONCERN FOR RESTRICTIONS THE COMING DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN MOVES IN OVER THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE
EARLY WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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