463
FXUS62 KCAE 240508
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
108 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN EXPECTED ON AND OFF EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH MORE CHILLY TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT.
- VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS.
A VERY WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SLOWLY SHIFTING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY/COOL
AIR WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
FA WITH COOL SPOTS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
SEES CONTINUING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS OVERHEAD, BRINGING COOLER NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AND HIGHS
THAT TOP OUT IN THE LOW 70S. SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN FA MAY
REACH THE MID 70S. DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN, WINDS WILL
BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, THOUGH DEWPOINTS
MIXING OUT INTO THE LOW 30S SEEMS LIKELY AGAIN, BRINGING MINIMUM
RH VALUES NEAR TO JUST BELOW 25%. DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS TODAY,
HAVE OPTED AGAINST ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES AND DRY FUELS STILL BRING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WORTH NOTING. ANOTHER MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
AS LOWS ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOW 40S WITH SHELTERED SPOTS
INTO THE UPPER 30S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY WILL SEE SOME WEAK UPPER RIDGING ALOFT AHEAD OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION, WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WEDGE FLOW EXPECTED. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BRING WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN FROM THE NORTH, AND ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH, TO THE LOWER
70S SOUTH. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE STILL DRY, NO RAINFALL EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
REMAIN COOL, AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP TO BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE CONTINUATION OF WEDGE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE RIDGING SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS LOW-LEVEL PATTERN WILL ACTUALLY REMAIN INTO
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. ALOFT, THE CLOSED LOW THAT HAD
BEEN WEST OF THE AREA WILL BE TRACKING EASTWARD INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS WINDS IN MID LEVELS TURN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH,
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL STILL REMAIN DRY. AS BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL FINALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUIDANCE SHOWING THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD
OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH
THE REGION OVER TOP OF THE LOW-LEVEL WEDGE PATTERN. THE WEATHER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO THE
THE SOUTHEAST. THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF THIS PATTERN LENDS ITSELF
TO CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, THOUGH DIURNAL
SPREADS WILL BE TEMPERED BY MOISTURE/PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER.
COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MONDAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S, AND THE SOUTHEAST ONLY
HITTING THE LOWER 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS,
READING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S MOST NIGHTS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.
CLEAR SKIES LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WORKS OVERHEAD TODAY. WINDS CURRENTLY ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ALREADY GOING
CALM. SHALLOW RIVER FOG CONTINUES TO SEEM UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
DRY AIRMASS, BUT A PERIOD OR TWO NEAR AGS BEFORE DAYBREAK CANNOT
FULLY BE RULED. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO ADD INTO THE
TAF. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SEES LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 KTS TURN
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY, CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY WEEK, WHERE A GREATER CHANCE FOR ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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