944
FXUS62 KCAE 241726
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
126 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN EXPECTED ON AND OFF EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MORE CHILLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
- VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH
EARLY TODAY MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION, WHICH SHIFTS
WINDS TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO BE QUITE CHILLY, BUT SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS MAY HINDER HOW COOL WE GET TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY,
RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ENSEMBLE
MEANS SHOWING PWATS AROUND 0.7 INCHES. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS A
FEW DEGREES WARMER, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH BUT STILL EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY, CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. BLENDED GUIDANCE OVERALL KEEPS THE AREA
DRY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE HIGH STILL CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DEVELOPING WEDGE CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING
INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WEDGE STRENGTHENS MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.
- UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.
WITH RAIN MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT, COLD AIR DAMMING EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. MULTIPLE WAVES OF RAIN
POSSIBLE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT, UPPER FORCING PROVIDED BY THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE AREA AND LREF PWATS INDICATING 60-70%
PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 1.25 INCHES. BLENDED GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND HIGHER WITH POPS AND COOLER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS WEDGE BUT OVERALL ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW UPPER TROUGHING
PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE WEEK, STRENGTHENING
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS LEADS TO RELATIVELY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED SO WHILE POPS WILL BE LOWER BEYOND
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE EASTERLY AFTER ABOUT
15Z, INCREASING TO ABOUT 7-10 KTS ONCE AGAIN. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE TO
NOT BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY,
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY WEEK, WHERE A GREATER CHANCE FOR
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page