334
FXUS62 KCAE 242322
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
722 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND, WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN EXPECTED ON AND OFF EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MORE CHILLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
A RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST OF THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHT IS ON TAP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES REMAIN IN PLACE AMIDST A
VERY DRY AIRMASS, FOSTERING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US, LEAVING US ON THE SOUTHERN END OF IT.
WHILE THIS MAY PROMOTE WINDS NOT BEING COMPLETELY CALM THROUGH
THE NIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN. SO BUMPED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM
WHAT THE NBM HAS, WITH LOW TO MID 40S EXPECTED MOST PLACES. SOME
UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN OUR COOLER, SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY,
RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ENSEMBLE
MEANS SHOWING PWATS AROUND 0.7 INCHES. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS A
FEW DEGREES WARMER, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH BUT STILL EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY, CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. BLENDED GUIDANCE OVERALL KEEPS THE AREA
DRY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE HIGH STILL CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DEVELOPING WEDGE CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING
INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WEDGE STRENGTHENS MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.
- UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.
WITH RAIN MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT, COLD AIR DAMMING EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. MULTIPLE WAVES OF RAIN
POSSIBLE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT, UPPER FORCING PROVIDED BY THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE AREA AND LREF PWATS INDICATING 60-70%
PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 1.25 INCHES. BLENDED GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND HIGHER WITH POPS AND COOLER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS WEDGE BUT OVERALL ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW UPPER TROUGHING
PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE WEEK, STRENGTHENING
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS LEADS TO RELATIVELY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED SO WHILE POPS WILL BE LOWER BEYOND
MONDAY, THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY.
AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. WHEN THE INVERSION
BREAKS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE E OR ENE
FROM 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION WHICH, ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS, WILL
PREVENT FOG OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN WEDGE CONDITIONS WHICH TYPICALLY BRING LOW
CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN OR MIST.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
S
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