514
FXUS62 KCAE 251008
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
608 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO HOLD OFF NOW UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN EXPECTED ON AND OFF
EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CHILLY START TO THE DAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
- DRY WEATHER PERSISTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS MORNING,
WITH A COUPLE SPOTS IN THE UPPER 30S NOTED, INCLUDING AT THE CAE
AIRPORT WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY 39F. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, KEEPING
NORTHEAST FLOW AND BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS THANKS TO WEAK
COLD ADVECTION IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BARELY BREAK THE LOW 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES, THOUGH PASSING CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN PAINS SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO INCH
CLOSER, UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE BEGINS
TO INCREASE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH PWAT'S GRADUALLY
INCREASING ABOVE 0.50-0.75". INCREASED CIRRUS COVER OVERNIGHT
SHOULD KEEP LOWS A BIT HIGHER, BUT STILL COOL, IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY THROUGH THE DAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WEDGE TYPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SET UP
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
TO OUR NORTH BUILDS SOUTHWARD. ALOFT, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE DAY WILL START
OFF WITH MOISTURE STILL LIMITED, HOWEVER AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED
ISENTROPICALLY OVER TOP OF THE SURFACE WEDGE, HELPING INCREASE
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. BY THE EVENING, MOISTURE WILL
FINALLY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL WILL
START OFF LIGHT, AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AROUND 50 DEGREES
FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WEDGE STRENGTHENS MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.
- UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.
WITH RAINFALL MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, THE LOW-LEVEL WEDGE CONDITIONS
SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY. THE DIURNAL TREND ON MONDAY
WILL NOT BE TOO LARGE, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE
MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 50S. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL
THROUGH THE PERIOD IS ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THAT, A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR RAINFALL.
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS OVER THE AREA,
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL STILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES, WITH
THE WEDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TRENDING ON THE COOLER SIDE, WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO POSSIBLY THE LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AS SOME CIRRUS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN. THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD SEE CIRRUS
CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH 5-8KT NORTHEAST WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT. BKN
CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS
STARTING TO MOVE IN AS WELL WITH MOISTURE ALOFT STARTING TO
INCREASE, SLOWLY BUILDING DOWN. THERE IS A SMALL HINT IN THE
MOST RECENT HRRR AND HREF GUIDANCE THAT SOME LOWER CEILINGS NEAR
5,000-7,000 FT COULD BE NEARING THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS AND MAYBE
OGB RIGHT AT THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS LOW AT THE MOMENT SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF THIS IN
TAF AS OF NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WEDGE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS MAY BRING LOW
CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PERIODS OF
RAIN, MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THESE POTENTIAL
RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, PERHAPS
LONGER, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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