767
FXUS62 KCAE 251637
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1237 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET SUNDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN EXPECTED ON AND OFF EACH
DAY NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER TODAY.
- CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE REGION REMAINS MAINLY SUNNY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON COURTESY
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH. MIDDAY PWATS ARE VERY
LOW, AROUND 0.5", BUT ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM, LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT,
RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD
END UP IN THE 40S BY DAYBREAK OUTSIDE OF NORMALLY COLD SPOTS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY THROUGH THE DAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WEDGE TYPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SET UP
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
TO OUR NORTH BUILDS SOUTHWARD. ALOFT, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE DAY WILL START
OFF WITH MOISTURE STILL LIMITED, HOWEVER AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED
ISENTROPICALLY OVER TOP OF THE SURFACE WEDGE, HELPING INCREASE
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. BY THE EVENING, MOISTURE WILL
FINALLY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL WILL
START OFF LIGHT, AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AROUND 50 DEGREES
FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WEDGE STRENGTHENS MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.
- UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.
WITH RAINFALL MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, THE LOW-LEVEL WEDGE CONDITIONS
SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY. THE DIURNAL TREND ON MONDAY
WILL NOT BE TOO LARGE, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY FORECAST IN THE
MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 50S. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL
THROUGH THE PERIOD IS ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THAT, A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR RAINFALL.
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS OVER THE AREA,
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL STILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES, WITH
THE WEDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TRENDING ON THE COOLER SIDE, WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO POSSIBLY THE LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE....
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. WHILE SKIES
ARE CLEAR AT THE TERMINALS CURRENTLY, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO
TONIGHT AND LOWER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEDGE CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOP. THIS MAY BRING LOW CEILINGS AND
POTENTIAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN ADDITION TO PERIODS OF
RAIN, MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THESE POTENTIAL
RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, PERHAPS
LONGER, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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