472
FXUS62 KCAE 251759
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
159 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET SUNDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN EXPECTED ON AND OFF EACH
DAY NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER TODAY.
- CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE REGION REMAINS MAINLY SUNNY AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON COURTESY
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH. MIDDAY PWATS ARE VERY
LOW, AROUND 0.5", BUT ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH
THE NEAR TERM. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM, LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT,
RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD
END UP IN THE 40S BY DAYBREAK OUTSIDE OF NORMALLY COLD SPOTS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY THROUGH THE DAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HREF PROBABILITIES OF
PWATS GREATER THAN AN INCH ARE LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH ALONG
WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER SUNDAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAPID LOW LEVEL MOISTENING
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT MORE MILD, IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WEDGE STRENGTHENS MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.
- UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.
WEDGE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND PRECIPITATION HELPING TO STRENGTHEN COLD AIR
DAMMING. WIDESPREAD RAIN, LOW CLOUDS, AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. WITH THIS WEDGE,
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 50S THROUGH THE DAY. BLENDED
GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT A 40 TO 50% CHANCE OF TOTAL QPF GREATER
THAN AN INCH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR THE WEDGE TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW TRENDING A BIT SLOWER
AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEANS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY POINTING
TOWARDS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
CLIMATOLOGY WHICH TYPICALLY HOLDS ONTO THE WEDGE LONGER THAN
MODELS INDICATE. GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN
ANOTHER UPPER LOW STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST WHICH WILL REINFORCE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP HEIGHTS BELOW AVERAGE. NAEFS
MEAN INDICATES HEIGHTS OF THIS LOW WILL BE BELOW THE 2.5
PERCENTILE INDICATED STRONG TROUGHING THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK LEADING TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE....
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. WHILE SKIES
ARE CLEAR AT THE TERMINALS CURRENTLY, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO
TONIGHT AND LOWER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WEDGE CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOP. THIS MAY BRING LOW CEILINGS AND
POTENTIAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN ADDITION TO PERIODS OF
RAIN, MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THESE POTENTIAL
RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, PERHAPS
LONGER, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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