345
FXUS62 KCAE 252342
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
742 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET SUNDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN EXPECTED ON AND OFF EACH
DAY NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CALM AND COOL WEATHER TONIGHT.
CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST, LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, WHICH SHOULD END UP IN THE 40S
BY DAYBREAK OUTSIDE OF NORMALLY COLD SPOTS.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY THROUGH THE DAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HREF PROBABILITIES OF
PWATS GREATER THAN AN INCH ARE LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH ALONG
WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER SUNDAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAPID LOW LEVEL MOISTENING
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT MORE MILD, IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WEDGE STRENGTHENS MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.
- UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.
WEDGE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND PRECIPITATION HELPING TO STRENGTHEN COLD AIR
DAMMING. WIDESPREAD RAIN, LOW CLOUDS, AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. WITH THIS WEDGE,
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 50S THROUGH THE DAY. BLENDED
GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT A 40 TO 50% CHANCE OF TOTAL QPF GREATER
THAN AN INCH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR THE WEDGE TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW TRENDING A BIT SLOWER
AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEANS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY POINTING
TOWARDS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
CLIMATOLOGY WHICH TYPICALLY HOLDS ONTO THE WEDGE LONGER THAN
MODELS INDICATE. GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN
ANOTHER UPPER LOW STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST WHICH WILL REINFORCE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP HEIGHTS BELOW AVERAGE. NAEFS
MEAN INDICATES HEIGHTS OF THIS LOW WILL BE BELOW THE 2.5
PERCENTILE INDICATED STRONG TROUGHING THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK LEADING TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT DRY
LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS FOG DEVELOPMENT OR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS. EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW FROM 5 TO 10 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR, ALLOWING VFR
CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY TREND LOWER UNTIL APPROACHING MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP PRIOR TO 00Z MONDAY BUT FOR
NOW VFR CEILINGS APPEAR MORE LIKELY. THE SAME DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL PREVENT RAINFALL AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEDGE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP AND RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION. THESE POTENTIAL
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY, BUT COULD HOLD ON
LONGER INTO THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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