863
FXUS62 KCAE 260529
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
129 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
AND CSRA WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN
TODAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN EXPECTED ON AND OFF EACH
DAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK-WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN INTO AREA TODAY, KEEPING NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION THAT KEEPS
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ALOFT, THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER OK/TX WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
EASTWARD, KEEPING UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY ALOFT. PWAT'S SHOULD GRADUALLY
RAISE TO ABOVE 1" THROUGH THE DAY AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SATURATE
ABOVE 500MB, GRADUALLY WORKING DOWN INTO THE MID LEVELS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT LIKELY STAYING ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND DRIER
LOW LEVELS. WITH THE SATURATED PROFILE ABOVE 900MB TOWARD THE
EARLY EVENING, A COUPLE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE CANNOT FULLY BE RULED
OUT STARTING THEN IF IT CAN OVERCOME THE AROUND 10-15C DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION AT THE SURFACE.
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TURN MORE EASTERLY TOWARD THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ALOFT AND
RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE AS PWAT'S REACH TOWARD 1.25-1.35".
THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS SOME OF THE FIRST BATCHES OF PVA ALSO MOVE IN
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INITIALLY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES THAT BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN FA.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WEDGE STRENGTHENS MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED,
MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE A NORTHEASTERLY WEDGE WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
IN PLACE, WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION HOLDING STRONG
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THIS,
EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE INVERSION LEVEL WILL BE BRINGING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND, WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BE BRINGING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOULD INITIALLY BE LIGHT, EARLY MONDAY,
THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING EARLY IN THE DAY, ALONG WITH THE WEDGE FLOW
AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER, SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, THEN THOSE SAME
CONDITIONS WILL BRING A SLOW DIURNAL DROP OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED COOL WITH LOWER RAIN POTENTIAL TUESDAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHER RAIN
POTENTIAL.
- A RETURN OF DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.
LOW-LEVEL WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH
A LOWER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO
THE AREA BEING BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS. STILL WILL SEE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER, AND WITH THE WEDGE CONDITIONS CAN NOT
RULE OUT LIGHT DRIZZLE OR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE WILL BE
GREATER. TEMPERATURES STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN AS
HIGHS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM, ALONG
WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL FINALLY
SCOUR OUT THE WEDGE, BUT CONTINUED CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN ON
WEDNESDAY, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PUSH THROUGH
DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. LINGERING RAIN POSSIBLE
EARLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSH EAST, THEN
A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLY MOVE IN AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER OK/TX.
DRY LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY POTENTIAL FOG INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. THE REST OF THE DAY SEES WINDS TURN MORE
EASTERLY AT 5-10 KTS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. IN GENERAL, BKN
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY WHERE SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTS FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS AROUND 3,500 TO 5,000 FT
WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE 00Z.
AFTER 00Z AND TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS COULD START DEVELOPING AND THUS A PROB30
GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED TO ADDRESS THIS, BUT THE MAIN RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS, THE MOST RECENT HRRR, HREF
AND LAMP GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING IN THE SOUTH
FIRST BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWARD. PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 23Z AND 06Z ARE GENERALLY GREATEST NEAR THE
AUGUSTA TERMINALS (AROUND 50%) AND DUE TO THIS, MVFR CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN ADDED TO AGS/DNL. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES BEFORE 06Z OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS POCKETS OF LOWER
CEILINGS WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS. CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO LOWER AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER THIS PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WEDGE CONDITIONS REALLY SET IN AND
RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION. THESE POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY, BUT COULD HOLD ON LONGER INTO THE
WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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