260
FXUS62 KCAE 261021
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
621 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
AND CSRA WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN
TODAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN EXPECTED ON AND OFF EACH
DAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK-WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN INTO AREA TODAY, KEEPING NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION THAT KEEPS
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ALOFT, THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER OK/TX WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
EASTWARD, KEEPING UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY ALOFT. PWAT'S SHOULD GRADUALLY
RAISE TO ABOVE 1" THROUGH THE DAY AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SATURATE
ABOVE 500MB, GRADUALLY WORKING DOWN INTO THE MID LEVELS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT LIKELY STAYING ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND DRIER
LOW LEVELS. WITH THE SATURATED PROFILE ABOVE 900MB TOWARD THE
EARLY EVENING, A COUPLE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE CANNOT FULLY BE RULED
OUT STARTING THEN IF IT CAN OVERCOME THE AROUND 10-15C DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION AT THE SURFACE.
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TURN MORE EASTERLY TOWARD THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ALOFT AND
RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE AS PWAT'S REACH TOWARD 1.25-1.35".
THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS SOME OF THE FIRST BATCHES OF PVA ALSO MOVE IN
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INITIALLY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES THAT BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN FA.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WEDGE STRENGTHENS MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED,
MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE A NORTHEASTERLY WEDGE WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
IN PLACE, WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION HOLDING STRONG
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THIS,
EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE INVERSION LEVEL WILL BE BRINGING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND, WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BE BRINGING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY
NIGHT, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOULD INITIALLY BE LIGHT, EARLY MONDAY,
THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING EARLY IN THE DAY, ALONG WITH THE WEDGE FLOW
AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER, SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, THEN THOSE SAME
CONDITIONS WILL BRING A SLOW DIURNAL DROP OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED COOL WITH LOWER RAIN POTENTIAL TUESDAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHER RAIN
POTENTIAL.
- A RETURN OF DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.
LOW-LEVEL WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH
A LOWER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO
THE AREA BEING BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS. STILL WILL SEE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER, AND WITH THE WEDGE CONDITIONS CAN NOT
RULE OUT LIGHT DRIZZLE OR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE WILL BE
GREATER. TEMPERATURES STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN AS
HIGHS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM, ALONG
WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL FINALLY
SCOUR OUT THE WEDGE, BUT CONTINUED CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN ON
WEDNESDAY, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PUSH THROUGH
DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. LINGERING RAIN POSSIBLE
EARLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSH EAST, THEN
A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE WINDS
TURN MORE EASTERLY AT 5-10 KTS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. SCT TO
BKN LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 3,500 TO 6,000 FT ARE ALREADY BEING
SEEN INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NEAR AGS/DNL/OGB AND THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
AFTER 00Z AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO START FORMING, BUT GUIDANCE HAS
PUSHED THIS TIMING BACK A BIT AND THUS THE PROB30 GROUP HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY, BUT THE MAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND LATER MONDAY MORNING.
IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS, A GRADUAL LOWERING OF
CEILINGS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED. MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND 3,000 FT ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO
AGS/DNL AFTER 00-03Z AND MORE LIKELY AFTER 06-09Z FOR THE
COLUMBIA TERMINALS AND OGB AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THESE
CEILINGS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWARD. IT IT POSSIBLE THESE
RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN EARLIER, ESPECIALLY IF RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE EARLY IN THE NIGHT, AIDING TO LOCK IN COLD AIR DAMMING
CONDITIONS EARLIER. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING, CEILINGS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO LOWER TO NEAR 1,000
TO 1,5000 FT, ESPECIALLY AT AGS/DNL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY AS WEDGE CONDITIONS REALLY SET
IN AND RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION. THESE POTENTIAL
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY, BUT COULD HOLD ON
LONGER INTO THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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