553
FXUS62 KCAE 261815
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COOL AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE MAKING IT FEEL
EVEN COOLER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ON AND OFF
EACH DAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CHILLY AND BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON
AS COLD AIR DAMMING BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE FA.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. A CHILLY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
WITH OCCASIONALLY BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST DUE TO INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONFIRMED BY RADAR IMAGERY AND A FEW REPORTS.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT, THOUGH THE BULK
OF THE RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN LIMIT COOLING TONIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WEDGE STRENGTHENS MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED AND
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY.
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING
INTO THE AREA AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL BE OBSERVED EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY OR DECREASING SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS LEADING TO A CHILLY DAY. RAIN WILL BE
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
BLENDED GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF THE CSRA, OVERALL THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IS LOW. HIGH PROBABILITY IN TOTAL QPF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT GREATER
THAN AN INCH WITH BLENDED PROBS AROUND 60-70% ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. STRONGER FORCING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT THE OVERALL THREAT REMAINS
LOW.
WITH THE LOW ABSORBED BACK INTO THE FLOW INTO TUESDAY, MOVING
EASTWARD, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DECREASE MOISTURE IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE WEDGE
LIKELY HANGS ON WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE
RAIN WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS PERSISTENT, THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY EARLY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHER RAIN
POTENTIAL.
- A RETURN OF DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDWEEK WITH NAEFS INDICATING 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING THE
FIRST PERCENTILE. THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD WHICH WILL
REINFORCE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO HELP TO ERODE THE
WEDGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH CLEARING
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATING
MODERATING TOWARDS NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS SPREAD TO CAE/CUB THIS AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE INTO TONIGHT....
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS
BEING REPORTED AT OGB/AGS/DNL. THESE SHOULD REACH CAE/CUB BY THIS
EVENING AS THOSE SITES HAVE CLOUD BASES JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET AT THIS
TIME. RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT RETURNS PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SO ADDED VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY FALL
FURTHER ON MONDAY MORNING. DRIZZLE TRANSITIONS TO SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ON MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
MAY ALSO RESULT IN BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY AS WEDGE CONDITIONS REMAIN AND RAIN
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. THESE POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS SHOULD PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY, BUT COULD HOLD ON LONGER INTO THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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