650
FXUS62 KCAE 270027
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
827 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COOL EVENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OR A LIGHT SHOWER
THEN INCREASING LATER TONIGHT IN THE CSRA. RAIN CHANCES
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE REGION THEN MORE SCATTERED INTO WEDNESDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
A CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH STRONG REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH CENTERING OVER
EASTERN CANADA; 500MB FLOW ALOFT IS A BIT ATYPICAL HOWEVER WITH
AN OCCLUDED TROUGH OVER MAINE. WHILE ATYPICAL, AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL STEADILY PROVIDE INCREASINGLY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT, OVERRUNNING THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WEDGE. GUIDANCE IS
QUITE CONSISTENT, DEPICTING INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH PWAT'S RISING TO AROUND 1.5" BY 7AM MONDAY.
AS 850MB FLOW STRENGTHENS TO 30-40 KNOTS BY MORNING, THE
ASSOCIATED BROAD SHIELD OF WARM ADVECTION FROM 850- 700MB WILL
HELP DRIVE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS, MAINLY IN WESTERN MIDLANDS
THROUGH 7AM. SO EXPECT SOME POTENTIAL HEAVIER SHOWERS TO IMPACT
THE MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY. AS FOR TEMPS, LIKE MOST WEDGES
LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL TREND IS EXPECTED DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP. SO TEMPS WON'T REALLY BUDGE MUCH FROM WHERE THEY ARE
THIS EVENING, IN THE LOW-MID 50'S, THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WEDGE STRENGTHENS MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED AND
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY.
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE OBSERVED EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
DAY OR DECREASING SLIGHTLY. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH LOW CLOUDS AND BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS LEADING TO
A CHILLY DAY. RAIN WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE BLENDED GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
PORTIONS OF THE CSRA, OVERALL THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOW. HIGH
PROBABILITY IN TOTAL QPF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT GREATER THAN AN
INCH WITH BLENDED PROBS AROUND 60-70% ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. STRONGER FORCING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT THE OVERALL THREAT REMAINS LOW.
WITH THE LOW ABSORBED BACK INTO THE FLOW INTO TUESDAY, MOVING
EASTWARD, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DECREASE MOISTURE IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS
THE WEDGE LIKELY HANGS ON WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST. WHILE RAIN WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS PERSISTENT, THERE
WILL STILL BE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY
EARLY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHER RAIN
POTENTIAL.
- A RETURN OF DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDWEEK WITH NAEFS INDICATING 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING THE
FIRST PERCENTILE. THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD WHICH
WILL REINFORCE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO HELP TO ERODE
THE WEDGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND BLENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATING MODERATING TOWARDS NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MOST OF THE NIGHT, POSSIBLE INTERMITTENTLY,
THEN CONDITIONS DETERIORATE ON MONDAY TO IFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER.
WEDGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE MS VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ENTRENCH LOWER CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WITH
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AND THEN LOWERING TO IFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ON MONDAY AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO DECREASE WHEN MORE STEADY WIDESPREAD
RAIN ARRIVES MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SOME DRIZZLE ALSO LIKELY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD GENERALLY AROUND 7 TO 12 KNOTS
WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE LATE TONIGHT BRING NEAR LLWS
CONDITIONS BUT THINK SURFACE WINDS REMAIN UP ENOUGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT AS WEDGE CONDITIONS REMAIN AND RAIN SPREADS INTO
THE REGION. THESE POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY, BUT COULD HOLD ON LONGER INTO THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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