187
FXUS62 KCAE 271031
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
631 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AIR DAMMING CONDITIONS AND AN UPPER LOW BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED INTO WEDNESDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MID WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WEDGE STRENGTHENS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE DAY
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- BREEZY WINDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
COLD AIR DAMMING CONDITIONS WILL REALLY SET IN TODAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN INTO
THE REGION WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ATOP THIS WITH THE UPPER
LOW MOVING CLOSER. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 295-305K LAYER
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING, PERSISTING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PVA FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE IN AS
WELL AND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING COUPLED WITH SURGING
PWAT'S NEAR 1.50-1.60", WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED STARTING
THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
HREF AND REFS 24H LPMM FOR QPF ENDING TUESDAY MORNING SHOW A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 0.50-0.75" OF RAINFALL WITH SPOTS TOWARD 1-2".
THIS IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING HREF PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER
THAN 1" ARE BETWEEN 50-70%, HIGHEST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH EXPECTED. THESE COOL/DAMP WEDGE
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STAGNANT THROUGH
THE DAY, IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT COOLER IN
SPOTS. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
OVERHEAD, AIDING IN STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES A BIT. THIS
COULD BRING A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ESPECIALLY INTO THE
SOUTHERN CSRA AND FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS FAIRLY LOW AT THE MOMENT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WEDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH RAINFALL WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA, SURFACE WEDGE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AND EVEN STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS BELOW THE WEDGE INVERSION, AND POSSIBLY EVEN LIGHT DRIZZLE
AT TIMES, WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN THESE
SITUATIONS, MOST GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO WARM THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS FOR TEMPERATURES, AND BELIEVE THAT THE STRAIGHT
NBM IS IN LINE WITH THAT. WE ELECTED TO BLEND IN SOME OF THE
COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUCH AS NBM10 AND CONSRAW, WHICH
BROUGHT THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES. THIS
HAS MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. ONLY EXPECTING A SMALL
DIURNAL DROP OFF FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT PER USUAL
WEDGE TRENDS IN THESE CONDITIONS. READINGS MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND
50, WITH VERY LIGHT PRECIP OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN
HIGHER RAINFALL.
- A RETURN OF DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY.
ANOTHER RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN
LOW LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY, THE WEDGE FLOW SHOULD BE HOLDING ON
FOR ONE MORE DAY. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS, CLOUDS, AND ANOTHER DAY
OF PRECIP, CAN NOT RULE OUT THE NBM TEMPERATURES NEEDING TO BE
LOWERED ONCE AGAIN. BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL FINALLY
HELP IN BREAKING THE WEDGE, BRINGING DRIER AIR IN TO BREAK UP
THE CLOUDS, AND TURNING WINDS OUT OF THE WEST. A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER WILL SET IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL, BUT WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD, THE COLDEST
NIGHT SHOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE DOES BRING SOME AREAS
INTO THE UPPER 30S, AND IF WINDS CAN DIMINISH ENOUGH, THAT COULD
BRING THE FIRST POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME IN THAT, BUT WE ARE GETTING INTO THAT TIME
OF YEAR WHERE IT WILL BECOME A CONCERN.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ALL OF THE TAF SITES ARE NOW DOWN TO MVFR CEILINGS WITH HINTS OF
LOWER CEILINGS STARTING TO MOVE IN NEAR AGS/DNL/OGB. WINDS
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR
15 KTS. RAIN SHOULD COULD TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH LOWERING CEILINGS WHERE IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED STARTING AT AGS/DNL/OGB, WORKING NORTHWARD BETWEEN
14-17Z OR SO. MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER BATCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED ALSO. NORTHEAST WINDS LIKELY PICK UP TO 10-15 KTS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 20-23
KTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE NORTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BUT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG WITH IFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS. PERIODS OF
CEILINGS NEAR LIFR STILL SEEM POSSIBLE MAINLY TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS A BIT LOWER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY
THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY AS THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
STRONG. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER
INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, BUT LESS CONFIDENCE HEADING INTO
THURSDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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